The ups and downs of the left in the new electoral supercycle facing Latin America

By Esteban Caballero / Latin America21

Gabriel Boric’s victory in the second round of the presidential elections in Chile gave a definitive cut to the uncertainty that reigned in a polarized political scenario, where each of the candidates tried to clarify positions and conquer the center: the center-left in the case of Boric and the center-right in the case of Kast.

This victory of the left undoubtedly marks an important milestone in the development of the new super-cycle of elections in Latin America. It helps us answer the question of whether in this round we are seeing the pendulum swing to the left, as opposed to the swing to the right that occurred in the past supercycle.

The winding road on the left

So far, what can be seen in the region is a slight and winding upturn on the left. The Bolivian national elections began that process, electing by a comfortable majority the successor of Evo Morales, Luis Alberto Arce. Peru also went to the left, by a narrow margin, and the elections for the constituent in Chile were a very Suigéneris phenomenon, but in which “independent progressive” forces predominated. The recent elections in Honduras gave a resounding victory to the candidate Xiomara Castro, who spoke very clearly for a leftist option. The case of Chile adds to this trend.

Furthermore, and rather on a prospective plane, the left has great chances in two of the most important countries in the region. On the one hand, Lula reappears in Brazil, leading the voting intentions; and, on the other hand, Gustavo Petro remains at the fore when it comes to voting intention in Colombia, while the center-left tries to come up with a consensus candidate.

The elections in Ecuador and the legislative elections in Argentina provided the counterpoint. Guillermo Lasso, a democratic and institutionalist neoliberal, finally achieved his mission; and in Argentina, Juntos por el Cambio surpassed the Frente de Todos in total votes and achieved a better position in the Legislative Assembly. Although there is parity in Deputies, Kirchnerism lost control of the Senate.

The challenges of pragmatism

The challenges of the democratic left in Latin America are multiple and difficult to overcome. In countries with one or two electoral rounds, alliance building is the most important political-electoral challenge. Without alliances the left does not arrive. Just as Boric negotiated with the center-left, strengthening ties with the actors of the Concertación, it is very likely that the Historical Pact led by Petro will have to negotiate with the center-left in the event that the options are re-polarized in the second round. The same is true in the case of Brazil.

In addition, the pendulum swings to the right or left not necessarily because of the attractiveness of the proposals, but because of the rejection of those who ruled during the pandemic. The rejection vote is essential to win elections, but it does not have to do with the ideological framework, but rather with conjunctural issues. Work, citizen security, the quality of services and employment are some of the issues that affect citizens.

This kind of political support tends to be skeptical of the grand narratives of political leaders and clamor for short-term improvements. But the vote of rejection can be quickly reversed. The 2021 regional elections in Bolivia, for example, demonstrated a loss of enthusiasm for the left-wing Arce government. This short fuse represents a huge stumbling block for the new governments, since when they come to power they find themselves inoperative, corrupt and often penetrated by organized crime. And in this framework, showing immediate results is extremely difficult, so any applicant would have to foresee quick impact measures that preferably do not have to go through Congress.

It is precisely this Congress that is the other factor to take into account. As visionary as the president-elect’s narrative may be, he cannot underestimate the opinion and weight of the Legislature. Pedro Castillo is suffering the attacks of a Congress that at any moment can achieve a majority to declare its incapacity. No matter by how much margin Boric wins, Congress already has a composition in which the right wing has a voice and a strong vote.

Faced with these scenarios, what remains is the art of the possible and the construction of a tailored public policy discourse for each issue and each correlation of forces that is presented. This includes, unfortunately, the debate on fiscal policy and the approaches to redistributive justice that the left wants to propose. In this area, fiscal space and indebtedness will always be great limitations. The cases of Honduras and Argentina, in very different contexts, give us the guideline that it is possible to protest and negotiate with the IMF, but eventually, no one, in these times, can ignore the essential role that credit plays and the factors that affect it. enable.

The long-term project

In this game of possibilities that the democratic left has, it should not be understood that the slogan is to abandon the great narratives of change and transformation, but rather to proceed to a process of democratic political construction and reform of the State in the longer term. Although it is slow and gradual, the stakes are extremely important. On the one hand, there is the need to counterbalance the threat of right-wing populist movements with their digital neo-fascism, ready to torpedo the institutionality of the rule of law. And on the other hand, make a difference against the authoritarian drift of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, which are always there to offer the right the best platform to establish false parallels, accusing authentic democrats of being agents of “Castro-Chavismo ”. (THE)

Esteban Caballero is a political scientist. Former regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United Nations Population Fund. Academic coordinator of the FLACSO Program in Paraguay. Independent consultant in planning, monitoring and evaluation. www.latinoamerica21.com, a plural medium committed to the dissemination of critical opinion and truthful information about Latin America. Follow us @ Latinoamerica21