The end of oil licenses, a threat that looms over Venezuela

The oil production of Venezuelawhich grew 17.6 % last year, run, according to expert Luis Oliveros, the risk of retreating if the new government of USAheaded by Donald Trumpit hardens the sanctions scheme against Caracas, with the suspension of licenses to foreign companies, a threat that looms over the Caribbean country after recent statements from Washington.

For the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, they must review “these licenses for which companies such as Chevron They are providing billions of dollars to the regime ”by Nicolás Maduro, who swore for a third term after his questioned re -election that has not yet been proven and rejects USA, who recognizes the opponent Edmundo González Urrutia as the winner.

For his part, Trump, architect of economic sanctions against the largest raw holder on the planet, said the same day of his return to the White House that his country does not need Venezuelan oil and warned that “probably” will “leave him to buy ”.

If the licenses granted by the previous US Administration to companies such as Chevron and the Spanish Repsol, Venezuelan production, which reached an average of 921,000 barrels per day (BPD) last year, last year in the 783,000 of 2023, will fall between 25 % and 30%, that is, up to about 644,700 BPD, economist Oliveros told Efe.

That is, production would reach the lowest level in 29 months, since August 2022, when the iron scheme of sanctions were still legacy for Trump To Joe Biden, who in November of that year authorized Chevron to resume limited operations in Venezuela, permission with which the controversial pressure policy began to flexed to get Maduro out of power, without success.

Other consequences

In the first year of chevron activities, the Venezuelan oil pumping went from 693,000 BPD to 801,000, a 15.5 %rise, according to official figures collected in reports from the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC).

Almost a year after permission to the American, Washington, in October 2023, raised several sanctions for six months, which allowed Venezuela to expand its international cooperation in the energy field, with the signing of agreements with companies such as Repsol and the French Maurel & Prom, who received US licenses after the North American country resumed the measures.

Last December, Venezuela almost reached the desired million barrels per day, reaching 998,000 BPD, which is an outstanding improvement for a country that, although it is still far from the 2.89 million BPD of crude oil that pumped at the beginning of the century, It has risen from the 392,000 BPD floor that produced in July 2020.

An eventual cessation of operations of foreign companies, according to economist Oliveros, would also translate into “less currency income” for the country, which entails a greater “exchange volatility” and, therefore, an acceleration of inflation, he warned The expert, who also highlighted the jobs generated by these companies.

According to analysts, a good part of the currencies obtained through oil They are injected into the national market to maintain supply above demand and control the price of the dollar, widely used in the South American country to quote goods and some services.

Dismissed threats

Trump also said that he could apply another embargo as he did in his first term because, he insisted, the United States has more than enough oil.

“That would change Venezuela enough”the president concluded, whose team, as sources from his government recently said, is shaping a plan to force the end to more than two decades of Chavismo, starting with the possible term of the license to Chevron.

However, Maduro, who is mocked by personal measures by calling them decorations, said Venezuela that Venezuela has better conditions today to face “sanctions and aggressions”, and estimates that the country will produce 1′500,000 barrels of daily oil with “your own effort.”