International Monetary Fund At the beginning of the quarter, he published forecasts for the world economy. In a nutshell it follows from them that The United States will growand the European Union will be stuck in economic apathy and stagnation. Economic growth in the US is to be 2.7 percent in 2025 In the previous quarter of the IMF forecasted 2.2 percent, and half a year ago it was 1.9 percent. Meanwhile, for the EU, the forecast for the current year is 1 percent. A quarter ago it was 1.2 percent, and two quarters ago 1.5 percent. Does this mean that Europe turns into an open -air museum and is an economic corpse? Not at all.
EU economy. “Digging a lying one is never elegant”
It is worth mentioning. Our country is to develop at a rate of 3.5 percent. Ministry of Finance He pointed out that the Polish result is above the estimates of the global growth rate of GDP (3.3 percent) and almost twice as high as the growth rate of developed economies. Meanwhile, Dr. Marcin Mazurek, chief economist of mBank, in context Economic apathy in the euro area He writes, among others, that “digging a lying person is never elegant, and the last months have been dominated by comments in this infamous competition and that” complaining about Europe will soon not be very good about the complaints. “This commentary was given by the expert was provided by the data presented by Jakub Wiech , editor -in -chief of the Energetyka24.com portal. Miln tons, in the USA – 80.7 million tons.
Europe is dying? “Funny thesis”
– The thesis that Europe is dying is already so well -wornthat it is beginning to be funny and at the same time dangerous. This is all the past and the future is still open. I would suggest to restrain my reins, because everyone else will believe it, and this will be a problem, because ordering expectations and narrative is extremely important – says Marcin Mazurek in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl and adds that you can use in this case ” Analogy with an absolutely cruel experiment once performed on rats. ”
The sinking animal fought much longer if it had a vision of saving (stick). Without this vision, it gave up and sink. And we really need a vision, not putting on penitential sacks
– believes the chief economist of mBank. According to him, the fact that the IMF forecasts a faster rate of US growth than the EU or euro area, this is nothing surprising. He emphasizes that this is “forecast for a very short period, year, two, forward”.
– In such a horizon, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the regulation policy, the construction of far -reaching plans, and it’s rather difficult to spoil. Anyway, let’s talk better about the trend that is shaped by structural factors and the cycle – says the expert.
The main economic “disease” of Europe
– IMF forecasts mainly hook on the cycle. The euro area suffers from echoes of monetary tightening, which was directed at the fight against inflation – it is once. Inflation also strained the income of households – these are two. Wages in the euro area and in the EU They grew really slowly for years. In a situation of large price shocks, this turned out to be a problem – says Marcin Mazurek. He also emphasizes that Europe also suffers “cyclical as incidental changes in the demand structure that took place after a pandemic.” – Everything looked cool during reconstruction, when people switched to remote work and buying good. Later, however, it went towards services in which Europe is rather not specializing, neglected them – says the economist and adds “the division of labor looks different in Europe than in the US: the services are less popular” – when the pendulum moved in this direction, Cool restaurants, historical hotels and medieval tourist attractions were not enough – The expert tells us.
To all this came “energy problems that have reached the industry”. The expert emphasizes that it is difficult for him to understand “ignoring the European automotive industry Chinese competitionand even plans related to energy transformation in general. – about ambitious decarbonization plans European Commission She has been trumpeting for a long time. Case? An unlucky coincidence? Or maybe faith that everything can stay the old way? That everything can be changed. For now we have a bucket of cold water, but I think it works. European car manufacturers are currently reporting a lot of patents and can boast of interesting solutions in their bev – says the main economist of mBank.
“Negative cyclical factors will pass”
In his opinion, negative cyclical factors will pass. Demand for goods will come back, interest rates will fall. This will support GDP growth. – This does not mean that the sun will suddenly rise to Europe, but – and here I am going to a plant – a defectistic tone will be softened, because people tend to treat complex problems as simple and applying simple diagnoses. And that’s not like that – says the expert. According to him, Europe “does not fight for the palm of priority in principle in nothing.”
Digital services are in the USA, the production of mass electronics in China, the arms industry is also mainly outside Europe. It will be difficult to catch up and change – now time is running faster. Perhaps Europe, however, does not want to chase here and there is no aspiration to rase. Or maybe people in Europe want to live peacefully? In my opinion, the direction of improving the quality of life is quite clear for a long time and by maintaining any GDP growth, this direction can be maintained
– believes the interlocutor next.gazeta.pl. He adds that In the European Union, it is different to work now than in the United States and completely different than in Asia. – The employee is important, and its functioning on the labor market is subject to many regulations that protect him. In Europe, health care is basically free. Perhaps we underestimate this, but people who decided to move out from the USA to Poland cannot praise it. And the fact that they can go on foot somewhere, get cheap public transport and feel safe in their own city and surrounded by their own apartment. I personally like such an open -air museum – says the economist.
“Europe can start repairing.” Down with fiscal brakes
In his opinion, “although the quality of life will also theoretically maintain Slight GDP growthsuch a path of development does not have to mean a condemnation to stagnation ” – Europe may start to repair. In recent years, the EU has generated powerful trade surpluses. Among other things, with the United States, which is now Donald Trump’s anger. I really don’t like to praise this man, but he is right here. Perhaps he comes out of bad premises, but in the end he Policy towards the EU It can be effective in repairing the EU itself – believes the expert. He emphasizes that the trade surplus means that there is a significant excess of savings over investments. – This, in turn, means that Europe is underinvested – it’s first. Secondly, if there are too many savings, it is also the effect of low consumption, both on the side of households and governments. Who likes low consumption, saving for saving? Probably nobody – says Marcin Mazurek.
He adds that a lot can change, “if only the euro zone suddenly wanted to spend more money and here public expenses come into play.” – current levels of debt due to many years of pressure on sticking Criteria from Maastricht They are not exuberant – I can imagine Hundreds of infrastructure projectswhich have a higher rate of return than you have to pay for the debt for their implementation. In my opinion Europe should primarily move away from fiscal brakeswhich are excessively restrictive and main, and the main strength of the belt tightened, i.e. Germany, must start spending money. We are getting closer, because soon there will be elections in this country that can change a lot – he assesses.
Public expenditure is crucial
According to our interlocutor, public expenses, in particular public investments, are extremely important. – In my opinion, it is even a more important element of long -term economic policy than indicating with a finger who will be a national champion. The difference is fundamental: in the first case we give the market, entrepreneurship and profit search. We give a chance to many solutions that we do not indicate enumerate. Indicating with a finger is contaminated with a fundamental problem: what will happen if we make a mistake putting all the eggs in one basket? – Marcin Mazurek wonders. The economist believes that the entire network of private companies can be produced for infrastructure expenses in the EU. ” – It’s a bit of such a subsidy, but every citizen also wins, because the quality of public services is improving – he assesses.
Trump, “alpha male” behind the Atlantic
– we complain about the regulations that The European Commission exaggerates, “straightens banana” etc., but you also need to pay attention to the second aspect of this state of affairs. The EC actually releases a lot of these regulations, but the internal market in the EU is still so attractive that all regulations regarding environmental protection, data or privacy are taken into account by globally operating companies. And this generates a positive snowball effect – says the economist. He indicates that despite the fact that Europe does not have any important army, “it is, however, to imply such its soft power on the whole globe, standards, company behavior and the specifics of goods and services.” He emphasizes that the EU has its light agenda. – It is known that we will focus on energy, clean energy, it is all the time Fit for 55 In a short term, the EU will certainly get his teeth because of it. Because when On the other side of the Atlantic we have a male alpha Trumpwhich arranges everything with strength and withdraws from everything that Europe goes, it can be difficult and uphill, while Trump will not rule forever – says the economist. He adds that “it is not known what will electrify voters for 4 or 5 years” – maybe we will return to the status quo, perhaps people will be interested in what will be in the real future, and not necessarily in the future, which is complex Only from the next year – believes the expert.
Europe has something to “blackmail” the Chinese
In his opinion, in the near future, “the European Union will also have to necessarily build a military industry and to get off “because it is now a” quite natural direction “. admittedly green transformation It begins to treat as a ball at the feet, “but in order to learn something new Europe must dirty their hands in it and if we do not go to it, we will not create companies that will be able to compete and we will always be doomed in this field to the Chinese.” According to the main economist, mBank is also not like Europe has nothing that the Chinese could “blackmail”.
There is, for example, such a nice Dutch company ASML, which produces equipment for the production of semiconductors and this is basically a global monopolist. Everyone would like to have machines from ASML, the Chinese do not have them, which is why they are absolutely doomed to this company. Americans also do not have their solutions here
– emphasizes. It also indicates that, for example, “Europe produces planes that fly and not stand at airports.” In addition, the EU still has “sensible research institutes”. The expert lists in this context even German Fraunhofer Institutewhich we currently owe, among others existence of streaming. Because it was there developed mp3 codec Used “everywhere and widely”. – I really understand that my arguments can be deducted by giving others. As I pointed out, the past does not determine the future. However, expectations already determine. The will and courage itself often matters. And it is not difficult when all attention focuses on self -bother. It’s enough – sums up Marcin Mazurek.
Source: Gazeta

At 247 News Agency, Jason has covered a wide range of topics, from politics and business to crime and entertainment. He is highly respected by his colleagues and peers, and his articles are widely read and shared. With a passion for news and a commitment to accuracy, Jason Root is a valuable asset to the 247 News Agency team.