Why should the Venezuelan elections matter to the rest of the world?

The future of Venezuela is at stake. Voters will decide on Sunday whether to re-elect President Nicolas Madurowhose 11 years in power have been marred by crises, or whether they give the opposition a chance to make good on its promise to reverse ruling party policies that caused an economic collapse and forced millions to emigrate.

Traditionally divided opposition parties have united behind a single candidate, posing Venezuela’s United Socialist Party its biggest presidential election challenge in decades.

Maduro faces former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who represents the revived opposition, and eight other candidates. Supporters of Maduro and Gonzalez celebrated the end of the official campaign with huge demonstrations in the capital, Caracas, on Thursday.

Here are some reasons why the Venezuelan elections are important for the world:

Impact on migration

The elections will affect migration flows regardless of the winner.

The instability that Venezuela has been experiencing for a decade has pushed more than 7.7 million people to emigrate, which United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) This is what is described as the largest exodus in recent Latin American history. Most Venezuelan migrants have settled in other Latin American and Caribbean countries, but more and more of them are setting their sights on the United States.

A national survey conducted in April by the Venezuela-based polling firm Delphos indicated that about a quarter of Venezuelans were considering emigrating if Maduro won again. Of those, about 47% said an opposition victory would make them stay, but roughly the same percentage said an improving economy would keep them in their home country. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The main opposition candidate does not appear on the ballots

The name most talked about during the campaign was not on the ballot: Maria Corina MachadoThe former lawmaker became a star of the opposition in 2023, filling the void left by the exile of an older generation of opposition leaders. Her criticism of government mismanagement and corruption mobilized millions of Venezuelans to vote for her in opposition primaries in October.

But Maduro’s government declared the primaries illegal and opened criminal investigations against some of its organizers. It has since issued arrest warrants for several Machado supporters, detained several members of her team, and the country’s highest court backed the decision to disqualify her candidacy.

But Machado has continued to campaign across the country, turning her disqualification into a symbol of the disenfranchisement and humiliation many voters have felt for more than a decade.

Machado has thrown her support behind Edmundo González Urrutia, a former ambassador who has never held elected office, helping unify a fragmented opposition.

The two are campaigning together, promising economic reform to bring back millions of Venezuelans who have emigrated since Maduro took office in 2013.

Gonzalez began his diplomatic career as an adviser to the Venezuelan ambassador to the United States in the late 1970s. He served in Belgium and El Salvador, and was Caracas’ ambassador to Algeria. His last post was as ambassador to Argentina during the presidency of Hugo Chavez, which began in 1999.

Why is the current president in trouble?

Maduro’s popularity has waned due to an economic crisis caused by falling oil prices, corruption and government mismanagement.

Maduro can still count on a loyal following, known as Chavistas, that includes millions of civil servants and people whose businesses or jobs depend on the state. But his party’s ability to use social programs to win votes has waned as the economy has weakened.

He is the heir of Hugo Chaveza popular socialist leader who expanded the welfare state in Venezuela while clashing with the United States.

Suffering from cancer, Chavez appointed Maduro interim president after his death. The president assumed the role in March 2013 and the following month narrowly won the presidential election called after his mentor’s death.

Maduro was re-elected in 2018 in an election widely seen as a sham. His government banned popular opposition politicians and parties, and, lacking a level playing field, the opposition urged voters to boycott the vote.

That authoritarian tendency was part of the US argument for imposing economic sanctions that crippled the country’s crucial oil industry.

An industry oil company poorly managed

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, but production has been declining for several years, partly due to government mismanagement and corruption at the state oil company.

In April, Venezuela’s government announced the arrest of Tareck El Aissami, the once-powerful oil minister and Maduro ally, over an alleged scheme through which hundreds of millions of dollars in oil revenues apparently disappeared.

That same month, the U.S. government reimposed sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector after Maduro and his allies used the ruling party’s total control over Venezuelan institutions to undermine an agreement allowing for free elections.

Among other actions, they prevented Machado from registering as a presidential candidate and arrested and prosecuted members of her team.

The sanctions prohibit U.S. companies from doing business with state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA, better known by its acronym PDVSA, without prior authorization from the United States Department of the TreasuryThe outcome of the election could decide whether these sanctions are maintained.

Under what conditions are elections held?

Freer and fairer elections seemed possible last year when Maduro’s government agreed to work with the U.S.-backed Unitary Platform coalition to improve electoral conditions. An agreement on electoral conditions gave the government broad relief from U.S. economic sanctions imposed on its state-owned oil, gas and mining sectors.

But a few days later, authorities said the opposition primaries were illegal and began issuing arrest warrants and detaining human rights defenders, journalists and opposition members.

A group of experts supported by United Nations The group investigating human rights violations in Venezuela has reported an increase in government repression against critics and opponents ahead of elections, subjecting its targets to detention, surveillance, threats, smear campaigns and arbitrary criminal prosecution.

The government has also used its control over media outlets, the country’s electrical grid and other infrastructure to limit the reach of Machado-González’s campaign.

The growing crackdown on the opposition prompted the Biden administration this year to reinstate sanctions it had suspended in October 2023.

Source: AP