Venezuela holds presidential elections amid uncertainty, threats and hope for change

Venezuela This Sunday, presidential elections are being held, the most difficult for Chavismo in its 25 years in power, with an opposition that for the first time appears to be the favorite with a promise of “change“after the country’s economic and social collapse.

Leftist Nicolás Maduro, 61, president since 2013 and seeking a third six-year term, framed the process as an election between “peace and war”, and said that an opposition victory would translate into a “bloodbath”, statement that set off alarms in the region.

His main rival is Edmundo González Urrutia, who represents opposition leader María Corina Machado, who is prevented from running due to political disqualification. Together with her, he promises to “reconciliation” and the return of millions of migrants who fled the economic and humanitarian crisis.

There are 10 candidates in all: Maduro, Gonzalez and eight other minor candidates. The 74-year-old opposition candidate was unknown until he was anointed by the charismatic and very popular Machado and now appears as the favourite in most polls.

But uncertainty reigns. Some even doubt that the election will take place or that González, 74, will appear on the ballot.

“If we get to Sunday the 28th as we are now, it will obviously translate not only into a victory, but into a very wide victory,” González Urrutia, Luis Salamanca, a professor at the Central University of Venezuela (UCV), told AFP.

But Chavismo dismisses this and maintains that these polls are fabricated to justify an allegation of fraud.When the CNE (National Electoral Council) proclaims the victory of President Maduro, we will take to the streets to defend peace”said his campaign manager, parliamentarian Jorge Rodríguez, taking re-election for granted.

Some 21 million of Venezuela’s 30 million people are registered as voters, although it is estimated that only 17 million who remain in Venezuela and have not migrated could vote.

Change versus transformation

Machado and González speak of change – a change of government, towards “freedom”; and of an economic system, towards a market economy; Maduro of “transformations”, after years of deep crisis that he blames on US sanctions.

The president’s face has invaded every corner of the country on posters hanging from poles, on murals and on giant billboards, in contrast to the opposition’s campaign, which is scarce in resources and focused on social networks.

Maduro holds two or three rallies a day on large platforms. The opposition, which mobilizes crowds, usually speaks from a truck, with the risk of arrest for anyone who provides it.

“These elections have not been free or fair in the selection of candidates or in the electoral campaign,” he said.said Rebecca Hanson, a professor at the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida.

“I am skeptical that there are enough incentives for Maduro to leave power,” Indian.

The United States, which calls the president a dictator, is offering a $15 million reward for information leading to his capture, and the International Criminal Court has opened an investigation into crimes against humanity against his government for the repression of protests in 2017, which left hundreds dead.

On July 28, the position of the security apparatus, which has been the main support of the government, will be key. The president has said that the Armed Forces are on his side and raised the possibility of a military uprising if the opposition wins. González Urrutia, for his part, has asked the military to “respect and make others respect” the result.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Monday appeared frightened by Maduro’s warning of “bloodbath”“Maduro has to learn: when you win, you stay (in power). When you lose, you leave. And you prepare to run in another election.”

Sanctions

The oil-producing country, long one of the richest in Latin America, is mired in crisis. Crude oil production plummeted from 3.5 million barrels per day in 2008 to 400,000 in 2020, and has now recovered to one million a day. GDP has shrunk 80% in 10 years, with four years of hyperinflation that led to a partial dollarization of the economy.

Some seven million Venezuelans have fled the country in the past decade, according to the UN. Health and education systems are in total ruin.

The government blames the evils on “criminal blockade”, as it refers to the sanctions that the United States imposed in 2019 following Maduro’s re-election in 2018, which it considers fraudulent.

Despite Venezuela’s rapprochement with Russia, Iran and China, the United States, which was its main buyer of crude oil, remains a central player in the Venezuelan situation.

Washington has promoted the organization of “democratic, free and fair” elections in exchange for sanctions relief and is holding negotiations with the Maduro government, the content of which is unknown.

The United States also wants to avoid a possible new wave of migration if Maduro is re-elected, a key issue in his own election campaign.