The Ecuadorian president, Guillermo Lasso, does not rule out resorting to the unprecedented “crossed death” to put an end to his tough bid with the National Assembly, in case the legislative blockade of his reforms persists and when a commission investigates his appearance in the Pandora papers.
This was confirmed by the president in an interview with the well-known Ecuadorian journalist Carlos Vera in which he evoked article 148 of the Constitution, which raises the legislative dissolution for three reasons, among them, obstructionism to the execution of the National Development Plan.
“These decisions are taken with prudence, with serenity, because they impact 17.5 million Ecuadorians,” the president responded to a question about this process, by which the president dissolves Parliament and calls elections.
In that period, he would govern with “full powers,” said political scientist César Ulloa, although with the endorsement of the Constitutional Court of each of his decrees.
Despite this possibility, Lasso specified that with the same “serenity” he also has to evaluate “the impact of a decision of this type on the international image (of the country).”
Legislative blockade?
The idea of activating this mechanism, never applied before and provided for in the 2008 Constitution, occurs in circumstances of open confrontation between the Executive and Legislative powers, triggered by the latter’s rejection of disputed bills.
The main one, but not the only one, occurred on September 29 when the Legislative Administration Commission (CAL) did not admit the flagship reform plan “Creating Opportunities”, and requested Lasso a series of corrections and redelivery.
At that time, with considerable popularity thanks to his massive vaccination plan, Lasso saw it as a deliberate blockade by his political enemies in the Legislative Assembly, where he barely had support of about 25 out of 137 seats, among his own and allies. .
And it warns of a “conspiracy” headed by former President Rafael Correa, the Social Christian leader Jaime Nebot, and the indigenous leader, Leonidas Iza: “The three interested in giving an institutional blow to democracy in Ecuador.”
Last attempt to disarm the bomb?
Today, and after several days of frontal exchanges and accusations, the president has announced that he will divide his reform plan into three projects – tax, labor and investments – and will return them to the Assembly.
“We are going to see how it acts: if it returns it, if it rejects it, if it allows a democratic debate,” he said.
Ulloa suggests that Lasso “corners the Assembly” and that if it “does not respond in terms of deliberation, analysis or modification, it will finally bet on a crossed death.”
An option that for Daniel Noboa, assembly member of the United Ecuadorian Movement, should be the “last” appealed because “borders on unconstitutionality”, although it is clear that “at this time there is no governance.”
He insisted that it is a scenario to “shuffle” if Lasso does not want to relax positions in his reforms and begin to take into account “the first power of the State”, to which “he is wanting to jump.”
“If the problems are not solved quickly, there will be a total collapse,” he asserts, listing the economic, labor, fiscal and security issues and recalling that the center-right politician won because “people wanted a change” and it would be the end of “a a very young government ”, a little over four months.
Surveys don’t help
The investigation opened in the Assembly has also contributed to the rarefied political environment to clarify whether Lasso still has assets in tax havens, something that he categorically denies but that could lead to another no less dramatic scenario: a political trial.
“There is nothing said in the sense that if there were a commission that independently conducts an investigation, the president can get away with it if he has all the evidence of his legal actions,” says Ulloa.
In any case, he assures, the motion would hit him for having investments abroad and he considers that the commission in charge of the investigation is “political” due to its mere composition: more members of the Correístas (by former President Rafael Correa) and of the indigenous movement.
Since the publication of Pandora’s papers, Correísmo, defeated in April, has launched an open campaign at the national and international level to demand his resignation or dismissal, and start a new electoral process.
The crisis, across its spectrum, has caused a significant decline in the acceptance of the president, according to the latest polls.
Cedatos, a company related to Lasso, indicated on Wednesday that his management approval would have fallen to 63.5%, while Perfiles de Opinion, more aligned with Correísmo, places it at 34.01%, from 74% between July and August. .
Without being entirely clear to what extent they reflect the impact of Pandora’s roles, there is no doubt that the chess pieces are moving toward a two-way checkmate.
If the Assembly blocks his new bills again, the president could have to resort to dissolving them to govern for a few months, but the legislative power also has in its hands to terminate the presidential term.
The big question is who will move the chip first to one of the two most dramatic scenarios of Ecuadorian politics.
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Ricardo is a renowned author and journalist, known for his exceptional writing on top-news stories. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he is known for his ability to deliver breaking news and insightful analysis on the most pressing issues of the day.
