Hungarians will lead the EU’s work. “Make Europe Great Again”. Orban will slow down negotiations with Ukraine?

Something like this was actually expected, but when Hungary finally revealed the official slogan for its six-month EU presidency, some faces in Brussels showed bewilderment. Budapest decided to paraphrase former US president Donald Trump and chose the slogan “Make Europe Great Again”.

Hungarian ultranationalist populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of former US President Donald Trump, is the most openly Eurosceptic leader in the European Union. Over the past decade, his government has battled with EU officials and other member states over restrictions on the country’s democracy, migration and, most recently, military support for Ukraine.

Hungary as an honest broker…

Budapest often vetoed key votes for the EU. Due to violations of democratic principles and the rule of law, the payment of billions of euros from EU funds to Hungary was suspended, although some of them were released after reforms were implemented. In mid-June, Hungary was fined EUR 200 million for violating EU asylum law.

The Presidency of the Council of the European Union changes every six months between the 27 member states. The role of the Presidency is to act as an “honest broker” between members and to put its national interests first. In addition, the country holding the Presidency is responsible for the development of EU legislation. The European Parliament has therefore questioned the suitability of Budapest for this task.

Last June, the parliamentary majority adopted a resolution asking how Hungary could credibly fulfill this task in 2024, given its failure to comply with EU law. However, the objection was not binding and did not lead to any further consequences.

As a result, on July 1, Hungary will take over the presidency of ministerial meetings and summits from Belgium, which currently holds the Presidency of the Council. By the end of the year, Hungary will also represent other member states in negotiations with the European Parliament and the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm.

At a press conference in Budapest, Hungarian EU Minister Janos Boka assured that his country would effectively fulfill the tasks of the Council Presidency. – We will act as an honest broker, loyally cooperating with all Member States and institutions – he emphasized.

During its presidency, Hungary wants to increase the EU’s economic competitiveness, strengthen defense policy, pursue a “coherent and results-oriented enlargement policy” and reduce illegal migration through better border security and more effective deportations in cooperation with non-EU countries.

…with a touch of Trump

Boka also mentioned the reorganization of the Cohesion Fund to help close the gap between richer and poorer regions, as well as a more farmer-oriented EU agricultural policy, given the protests against EU climate protection plans. Hungary also wants to address demographic challenges.

This was followed by the unveiling of the official motto: “Make Europe Great Again”, which bears a blatant resemblance to Trump’s famous “Make America Great Again” slogan, which can be seen on countless red baseball caps in the US. During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, relations between the EU and the US deteriorated dramatically. Although Donald Trump has been convicted under criminal law, he is running for president of the United States again in November.

The slogan emphasizes “the expectation that we should be stronger together than apart, but that we should be able to remain who we are when we are together,” Boka explained.

Rebellious behind the wheel

Alberto Alemanno, professor of European law at the University of Paris HEC Paris, also argued for denying Hungary the presidency of the EU Council. “I am afraid that the Hungarian presidency may encourage the idea that a breakaway member state can disregard the rules and still benefit from the community,” he wrote to DW.

Budapest takes over the Council Presidency at a time when much is changing in Brussels. Elections to the European Parliament took place in June, and the final composition of the European Commission will be determined by the end of the year. As a result, there are likely to be few new legislative initiatives.

Slowed down accession negotiations with Kiev?

One of the issues that the Hungarian presidency may influence is Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership. It is still in its early stages and Kiev hopes to make rapid progress by starting concrete talks on the necessary reforms – known in EU jargon as “negotiating chapters”.

However, as Boka pointed out, it is unlikely that any significant movement will take place before 2025: – I assume that the issue of opening chapters will not be discussed at all during the Hungarian presidency – he said.

Green Deal under pressure from the right

According to Alemanno, the Hungarian presidency will also have clear consequences for the pioneering goals of the EU’s climate policy. Especially when it comes to setting the 2030 targets, with which the EU wants to move closer to its overall net zero target by 2050.

“The Hungarian Fidesz government has often been sharply critical of the Green Deal and the EU’s climate agenda,” Alemanno points out. With a political landscape likely to shift to the right after the last EU elections, a country skeptical of climate protection will lead the Council in the second half of 2024 .may affect the EU’s position.

Is this just a provocation?

However, the influence of the countries holding the Presidency of the Council should not be overestimated. The vast majority of legislative proposals come from the European Commission and are adopted by the Member States and the European Parliament.

One Western European diplomat, who asked not to be named, told DW the next six months are assumed to be relatively normal. – Orban and his people are aware that other EU countries will intervene and take over power if he dismantles the EU agenda – he says. – At most, they will use this platform to provoke a bit. Just like with their slogan. It’s up to us to be disciplined enough not to get caught.