IMF warns that generative AI will also affect skilled jobs

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Generative technology could replace humans in cognitive jobs – in which mental processes are needed to process information -, which would expand the automation of the labor market to other sectors beyond repetitive tasks, according to a study published this Monday. he International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Until now, it has been proven that robots can replace people in mechanical and repetitive actions, but this specific type of AI – used in systems such as the popular ChatGPT from the company OpenAI – is capable of simulating human thinking procedures, for example. which presents challenges beyond low- and medium-skilled jobs.

The IMF report, titled ‘Expanding the benefits of generative AI: the role of fiscal policies’has the objective of guiding and preparing policy makers for the impact of generative Artificial Intelligence, since it presents strengths but also risks.

In this sense, the agency advises against applying special taxes on AI to reduce investment in it, since it considers that it could hinder productivity, but recommends that countries increase the average tax on capital income.

According to the IMF, the low taxation of capital compared to that of labor can contribute to excessive displacement of labor and increase labor market frictions, which is why it insists on reversing this trend.

If this does not change, the Fund warns of the danger of greater business concentration and monopoly situations.

“Emerging market and developing economies are less exposed to AI than advanced economies, but also less prepared to adapt to it“, explained in a call with the media, the director of the Mission in Vietnam and the Division in the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF, Era Dabla-Norris, who is one of the authors of the report.

In addition to increasing taxes on capital income, the study proposes increasing corporate tax.

“The global minimum tax that more than 140 countries have agreed upon and which establishes a minimum effective tax rate of fifteen% For multinational companies it is a step in the right direction,” Dabla-Norris added.

Regarding tax policies, the IMF believes that AI has the potential to further reduce tax evasion globally and improve tax law enforcement.

For example, AI and the use of big data could design a personalized progressive value-added tax, an income tax based on lifetime income, or a property tax based on market value in real time.

In any case, the IMF insists on the “enormous uncertainty” that exists about the economic impact that the progress of advanced AI can generate in society, which is why it encourages evaluating whether social protection, education and taxation systems are adequate and flexible enough to deal with a wide range of scenarios.

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