Dengue will cover almost all of Brazil and Mexico by 2039, according to a study

America is the continent most affected by the denguewith 8.1 million cases, and the situation will worsen in the coming years, according to a report that predicts that the infection will spread by 2039 to practically all of Brazil and Mexicothe two largest countries in Latin America.

The research, published in the journal Nature Communications and in which scientists from Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States, Brazil and Mexico collaborated, predicts that by 2039, 97% of municipalities in Brazil will be affected by dengueMeanwhile in Mexico the figure will be 81%.

The analysis predicts that in Mexico The expansion of dengue will be mainly in the interior of the country, in the highest altitude areas of the central plateau.

The study estimates that the Tijuana area, on the border with USAwill be invaded between 2027 and 2030, and the metropolitan area of Mexico Citybetween 2038 and 2039.

In Brazilmost of the invaded areas in the coming years will be in the south.

The situation is already alarming, according to experts from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) who met at the end of May in Washington, because so far this year, there are already three times more documented cases than the cases registered in the same period. 2023. Deaths stand at 3,600.

The international team of researchers pointed out in their study that the spread of dengue, a febrile disease that is transmitted by the bite of a mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and which can cause difficulty breathing, serious bleeding and organ complications, will accelerate in the coming years due to climate crisis and the greater mobility of the population.

Researchers for the first time used machine learning technology (popularly known as artificial intelligence) to understand how the connection between areas and environmental conditions interact at different stages of life. infectionexplained to EFE one of the scientists who participated in the study, Vinyas Harish, from the University of Toronto (Canada).

“Many people have investigated environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, rain, to establish the relationship between these characteristics and mosquitoes.”Harish stated.

“But to really understand how dengue affects the population, we needed to integrate that with data on population mobility over time. We use machine learning to integrate those perspectives”he added.

The data the team used comes from more than 8,000 municipalities in Brazil and Mexico over the past 25 years, along with climate information, records of the occurrence of epidemics and the history of genetic evolution.

In 1996, only 16 municipalities in Mexico (0.65% of the country’s total) were affected by the dengue infection. But between 2000 and 2010, the infection expanded to 965 municipalities and by the end of 2019 the figure reached 1,350, 55% of the total.

In Brazil, the growth was similar. In 2001, the dengue It was only present in two states and 549 municipalities (9.96%). By 2019, the figure had exploded to 4,299 municipalities, 76.8%.

According to PAHO, there is no specific medicine to treat denguewhose infection can occur without symptoms, or can be evidenced by symptoms ranging from a moderate fever to a high and disabling fever, headaches, muscle pains and rashes.

But Harish was optimistic that the study’s findings will allow authorities to take preventive measures.

“From simple interventions, such as increasing awareness among the population to avoid the bites of these mosquitoes, to more complex ones, such as research into vaccines or mosquito replacement techniques.”, he concluded. EFE