Cuba delays the completion of the population census until 2025: the reasons

Cuba It will delay at least until 2025 the population census that it had planned to carry out two years ago due to lack of resources, a consequence of the serious economic crisis that the country is suffering.

This is what the vice head of the National Statistics and Information Office (ONEI), Juan Carlos Alfonso, advances in an interview with EFE, who recognizes the detriment of the situation in his department, although he defends that the system has “very strong records.”

Alfonso also confirms the deterioration of well-being indicators, places the island in an intermediate position in Latin America in this area, and justifies – for political reasons – that the ONEI produces statistics that are not published, such as migration estimates and inequality indicators.

“Initially we thought this year as a possibility of doing the census, because it is a necessity, because we have gone twelve years without a census (…). We are working to do the previous registration of the census in 2024 and see the real possibility, based on the country’s availability, of doing it in 2025. It is a goal to do it in 2025″, he indicates.

The delay of the large macro population survey that Cuba carries out every ten years affects the data available to the Government to make public policies and also its large accounts.

Alfonso alleges that it is due to the “external aggressions” suffered by the country, in relation to US sanctions and also “internal problems.”

The pandemic, the tightening of sanctions under Donald Trump and failed economic and monetary policies have aggravated the structural problems of the Cuban economy since 2020, generating shortages, rampant inflation, frequent blackouts and an unprecedented wave of migration. “There is an increase in situations of vulnerability, of inequality, there is no doubt about that,” he says.

In this sense, he recognizes that “the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) has deteriorated,” an indicator designed by the UN that includes education, health, and standard of living (and not just income level), and that it is, he argues Alfonso, the one that best reflects the situation in Cuba, where many public services are free and universal.

However, it undermines the credibility of studies from abroad that paint a catastrophic situation, such as the one that claims that 88% of Cubans live in extreme poverty. “Ideology aside, I tell you professionally: this is not how the country works,” he says.

Inequality

It also indicates that inequality has increased, measured with the Gini Coefficient, where 0 is absolute equality and 1 is total inequality.

He points out that in 1989 it was 0.25 and suggests that currently it is between 0.4 and 0.5. “It is not the highest in Latin America, the highest are Brazil and Chile with 0.50 or so; and it is not the lowest, which is that of Uruguay, which is 0.38 or 0.39. We are in all of this in average terms,” he comments.

Encouraged to give a concrete figure, he responds: “I’m crazy to get it. I have been calculating it, working on it for 40 years. Cuba has to defend itself and sometimes we defend ourselves to the extreme. But they have to understand that we defend ourselves, because they use a lot of our information (against us).”

“There is information that is there and is used for decision making. They are not public,” he adds. Another key point without figures in Cuba is that of migration. Since 2021, some 650,000 have left for the United States and another 100,000 for Mexico, plus those who left went to Spain, difficult to count because many have dual nationality, and to other countries. But those figures are from the receiving countries.

The ONEI assures that it is attentive to this evolution, but alleges that Cuba does not consider any citizen to be legally emigrated until they have been abroad for two years. “We can have an estimate,” Alfonso admits. It does outline the profile of the emigrant: young, with a relative balance by sex and coming from all over the country. He also delves into the “impact” of his departure: “Obviously all of this has a cost, there is not the slightest doubt, a cost in the reproductive capacity of the country, a cost in the productive capacity of the country.”