The challenges of the future president of Mexicothe first woman in power, are many and profound, among which are the violence of the cartels, the polarization of the country, the cost of maintaining social programs and the long shadow of her mentor, the outgoing president. Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
But for some analysts, the majority revolves around three concepts: money, dialogue and what may happen in the next United States elections. Claudia Sheinbaum, who will begin her six-year term on October 1, has four months ahead of her to define her government program. In that time, López Obrador will offer some 80 morning conferences in which he is expected to try to realize his legacy.
A coexistence that does not seem simple: he polarized society, she talks about “dialogue” and “harmony”; He is a mass leader, she is an academic and scientist.
López Obrador stated on Monday that he will not influence the government of his successor and that he does not aspire “to be a moral leader, not a top boss, not a leader, much less a chief”. When he hands over the presidency, he insisted, he will retire from politics and all types of public life to dedicate himself to “talk with the trees, live with the birds.”
However, it was he who announced the first member of Sheinbaum’s cabinet on Monday morning, saying that the current Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, will remain in office to give peace of mind to the markets. Hours later, Sheinbaum confirmed it.
The balance between continuity with López Obrador’s legacy and the possibility of adjusting his most controversial measures—such as militarization or security policy—will not be easy.
A first economic problem is whether you will have money to continue with the current social programs – which involve around 11.5% of GDP—since Mexico already has a large public deficit of almost 6% that the Treasury wants to reduce. “There are going to be cuts and this new legislature has to vote on that,” said Isidro Morales, academic expert in Economics and International Relations.
“A tax reform is needed, if there is not one, Claudia’s hands are going to be tied,” He added, because Mexico no longer has much oil revenue, which was previously an important source of foreign currency.
The state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos, a symbol of López Obrador’s staunchest nationalism, but also of years of corruption and which maintains a polluting energy model that the world wants to reverse, continues to lose money.
Analysts consider that it is one of the big red lines that Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who advocates for clean energy, will not be able to touch because the workers in the sector were an important electoral support, as demonstrated by the many banners at the end of her campaign in the that was read “tankers”.
Furthermore, the period of transfer of power will take place in the middle of the electoral campaign of the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner and whose security and immigration policies are totally interrelated by sharing more than 3,000 km of border.
The re-election of Democrat Joe Biden or the return of Republican Donald Trump on November 5 will be “the real variable that will modify scenarios”, explained Carlos A. Pérez Ricart, professor at CIDE, a Mexican public research center.
The reason why these votes will influence so much in Mexican territory is simple: whether one or the other wins can not only condition the policy against organized crime, trade or immigration but also internal decisions in Mexico, such as the role of the army, given that Washington could transfer certain requests in exchange for others.
Sheinbaum studied in the United States, speaks English and understands the politics of that country, which would suggest a better understanding with Washington but no one can control the variable. “Trump” with whom López Obrador got along wonderfully because they shared a style of doing politics although from different political extremes.
The problem, experts consider, is that both on the immigration issue and in the fight against cartels, the future president has not proposed anything new and the policies of the current administration have only timidly controlled the flow of migrants to the north without achieving contain violence.
The centers specialized in organized crime issues consider that Mexico’s priority when it comes to combating violence and impunity should be through strengthening the civil police and prosecutors’ offices, but López Obrador opted for the militarization of the country and gave gives the armed forces never-before-seen power in numerous civil issues—from security to construction—with the dangers this has for human rights and accountability. Furthermore, he has not stopped the violence either.
It is also unclear what Sheinbaum will want and be able to change or what the military’s pressure on her might be. And she has already said that she will maintain strategic projects, such as the controversial Mayan Train, which she has devastated part of the natural environment in the southeast of the country.
Fighting polarization will involve rapprochement with environmentalists, scientists, feminists, academics, journalists or human rights defenders against whom López Obrador harshly attacked, rejecting all criticism.
In the political sphere, the parliamentary majority will be a double-edged sword.
For the third of the population that voted against it, it could be a danger because if the preliminary results for Congress and the Senate are confirmed, there will be enough legislators to change the Constitution and López Obrador had proposals as controversial as eliminating balance of power bodies. —such as the National Transparency Institute— or that judges are elected by popular vote.
Therefore, a key will be that, although the Sheinbaum government is committed to a stronger role of the State in public life, it unquestionably defends the division of powers, indicated Pérez Ricart.
For political scientist Luis Miguel Pérez Juárez, Sunday’s results give him “enormous power” to Sheinbaum, who will not need to submit to the demands of Morena, a party created by López Obrador ten years ago to win the presidency and to which politicians with very different profiles have joined.
Morena governs in 23 of the 32 states and on Sunday won another one, according to still preliminary data.
For some analysts, it could be considered a new form of the Institutional Revolutionary Party — which governed for seven decades of the 20th century — but, unlike it, Morena lacks structure, says Pérez Juárez. For this reason, he points out, he does not believe that it will condition the future president.
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Source: Gestion
Ricardo is a renowned author and journalist, known for his exceptional writing on top-news stories. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he is known for his ability to deliver breaking news and insightful analysis on the most pressing issues of the day.
