Imminent Atlantic hurricane season could be worst in decades

The season of hurricanes of 2024 in the Atlanticwhich officially begins this Saturday, is expected to be one of the most active and intense in decades, with up to 13 hurricanes forming and concerns that the number of cyclones that make landfall may be twice as high as usual.

It is such a high prediction forecast that the administrator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Rick Spinard, noted that it is about “the highest hurricane season outlook NOAA has ever issued.”

NOAA warned that there was a 85% probability that the hurricane season would be above normal, with between 17 and 25 named storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes, of which between 4 and 7 were major.

These are figures that are well above the average per season, which is 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them of major category, and which if realized could turn this year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic into one of the worst. in decades.

‘La Niña’ and overheated Atlantic waters

María Torres, NOAA meteorologist and communications director of the National Meteorological Service, told EFE that “A very important factor that favors the development of tropical systems this summer and fall are warm ocean temperatures.”

This, in combination with the return in the Pacific of the phenomenon of ‘The girl’, that “it tends to reduce the shear winds, known as wind shear, in the zone of formation of systems in the Atlantic”, makes “there is a higher probability of having more storms”, according to the expert.

Apart from the comparison of hurricane seasons, given that “each season is unique”, the important is that “We must be prepared and have a plan”warned Torres, in reference to a cyclonic season marked by almost record ocean temperatures in these months.

Hugh Willoughby, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environment at Florida International University (FIU), was very concerned about the general forecasts and warned that “It is very likely that we will have one or two landings of really damaging phenomena on the US coast.””, with a cost in material damage of more than US$30,000 million.

Both scientists agree that the conjunction of ‘The girl’ and the overheated waters of the Atlantic are a combination that can be catastrophic for the exposed population in countries in the Caribbean, Central America or North America.

NOAA also referred to the possibility of the formation of a strong monsoon in West Africa that generates waves that feed powerful, long-lived storms in the Atlantic.

Besides, “Human-caused climate change – NOAA warns – is warming our oceans globally and melting ice on land, causing sea level rise” and may increase the risk of storm surge.

Florida eliminates the climate crisis on paper

The panorama contrasts with the position of the governor of Florida, Republican Ron DeSantis, who recently signed a new and controversial law that eliminates most references to the climate crisis from state legislation.

DeSantis said the new law, which removes the climate crisis from being one of the state’s priorities, is a response to the “agenda of the radical green fanatics.”

According to The Weather Company, the five hurricane seasons that are closest to what is expected in 2024, based on years that fluctuated from ‘El Niño’ to ‘La Niña’, in a similar way to this year, are those of 1973, 1983, 1998, 2010 and 2016.

These seasons produced an average of 16 named storms, almost 10 hurricanes and 4 of them major, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163, when 160 and above is considered a hyperactive season.

The Weather Company warned about the possibility that the number of hurricanes making landfall could be twice as high as usual.

As for the areas of the US Atlantic most exposed this year, Willoughby pointed to “all” the Gulf of Mexico, from Florida to Texas, and recalled that, in terms of damage caused in the country, “Since 2003, twice as many have been experienced than in climatologically analogous years of the 20th century.”. “We’re going to need good luck. I hope to be wrong”, he sentenced.

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