He 81% of Europeans believe that participating in elections to the European Parliament this year is even more important, taking into account the current geopolitical situation. This conclusion is drawn from the European Parliament’s Eurobarometer published last April, which shows not only how interest in the European event has grown compared to the month of October, but also in comparison with the last survey published before the European elections. of 2019.”Europeans are aware that there is a lot at stake at the polls and they know that voting is more important in the current geopolitical context,” says the president of Parliament, Roberta Metsola.

The 2024 elections are the first European elections to take place since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, in a conflict that has kept practically all the countries in the region in suspense. In fact, in the days before the elections, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has visited different European countries, including Spain and Belgium, with whom it has been signing bilateral security and cooperation agreementsin line with the actions of the community block in these more than two years: the EU countries have been supplying weapons and resources to Ukrainewhile Brussels has begun to accelerate the process for Ukraine to become part of the Union.

And in this particular case, it must be taken into account that The Russia issue generates a particular polarization in the European Union. While northern and eastern European countries have pushed for toughen the community stance towards Kyiv, the southern and western states of the bloc have been more prone to cooperation. In this context, the director of the Istituto Affari Internazionalli and former special advisor to Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrel, Nathalie Tocci, considers that the European position since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine has been quite “unified”, taking into account that sanctions packages against Moscow They have been approved unanimously.

This does not imply, however, that there are no differences —the clearest, for example, between France and Germany—, and although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has clearly revealed them, the member countries seem to have reached a space of political convergence on this matter, according to the professor of the Giovanni Grevi Brussels School of Governance.

The extreme right, the great winner of the EU?

In this context, however, it must be taken into account another growing trend ahead of the European elections: he foreseeable increase of the extreme right in the community bloc. Apparently, the possible rise of the European extreme right—in Spain, for example, the surveys predict that Vox will double its results and that, furthermore, another ultra party obtains even one MEP—comes as a result of what some consider the irregular and uncontrolled entry of immigrants and asylum seekers to European soil; But there are experts who suggest that the growth of populist parties may also be due, in part, to the strong EU commitment to maintaining high levels of aidboth financial and military, to Ukraine.

The Identity and Democracy group – made up mainly of deputies from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the National Rally of Marine Le Pen, the Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders, the Italian Lega or the Austrian Freedom Party – can reach be the third largest in the European Parliament, where since the 2019 elections it has occupied a more discreet sixth place. We must not forget that These parties advocate measures ranging from cultural traditionalism to strict immigration controls, but going through a negotiated resolution of the conflict between Ukraine and Russiamore than the strong support that Ursula Von der Leyen’s EU has provided to Kyiv during the last two years.

Depending on the space that ID and other forces more inclined to a negotiating position between Moscow and Kyiv end up occupying, which rules out closed-eyed aid to the Zelensky Government, it will have a greater or lesser weight in the decision-making of the European Union in regards to support for Ukraine and its integration into the European bloc, according to professor and researcher Molly O’Neall.

We must not forget, furthermore, that the European elections are already planned by the United States presidential elections, which are held in November, and in which Donald Trump appears again, who is also the favorite. In the event that the former Republican president returns to the White House, it is expected that Washington withdraws part of its support for Ukrainewhich would have direct consequences on the economic and resource contribution of the European parties that support Kyiv, which could be forced to restructure your budgets and recalibrate your priorities.

Inflation, a key problem for European countries

Another of the common problems of the European Union, clearly aggravated by the conflict, is the increase in prices in the last two years. While some experts consider that inflation has not been defining in the change of color of many European countries since 2022, in which inflation has been rising, – comparative politics specialist, PhD in Political Science from Waseda University and associate professor at Kitakyushu University Ryo Nakai, for example – this is one of the most common in changes of Government.

Nakai maintains that in the right turns contemplated in different European countries in 2023 and 2024 they have had more to do with country-specific factors and long-term structural trends than with inflation itself. However, according to a recent Ipsos survey for Euronews placed this problem at the top of the concerns of European voters. So much so, that for these elections it has even placed itself ahead of issues such as immigration or climate change: everything related to The economy occupies four of the five voters’ priorities when making the decision about your vote.

People buy much less, but pay much more

In theory, the inflationary crisis seems to be subsiding, but in practice, the impact of inflation on citizens is still very present. “People buy much less and yet pay much more,” he assures Investigate Europe Réka, a supermarket cashier in Budapest (Hungary), who says that people still get very “nervous and tense” when paying. Hungary has the highest food inflation in Europewith prices that double those of 2020.

The EU annual inflation hit record high in October 2022, when it reached 10.7% – the objective set by the European Central Bank is 2% -, largely derived from the consequences of the Covid pandemic, but also aggravated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And among those who have included these issues in their programmatic discourse of the European elections are several far-right parties. Jordan Bardella, candidate for Le Pen’s National Rally in France, has defined the problem with purchasing power as “one of the great untreated anxieties” of the French, “a wall” that many can no longer cope with.