Green Deal censored. But many of these promises may not remain after the elections

There is just over a week left until the European elections and it is difficult to say what the main topic of the election campaign is. Much of what politicians say has little or no connection with EU policy. Internal party disputes play an important role. European topics include: Green Deal. But mostly negatively.

The populist right wing of PiS and the extreme Confederation have made opposition to the EU’s climate policy one of the main points of their campaign. We are going to stop the Green Deal – politicians promise. Those from Sovereign Poland mock EU packaging regulations, Jarosław Kaczyński again. During the demonstration of Solidarity and PiS-affiliated Gazeta Polska Clubs, people chanted: “The Green Deal should be thrown away.”

The Confederation took “stopping the Green Deal” as its number one demand. – We say firmly: we will stop the Green Deal – Sławomir Mentzen promised at the election rally.

However, the pro-European parties of the current ruling coalition also have their doubts. A few months ago, PO leader Donald Tusk boasted about “blocking”, which is one of the pillars of the Green Deal. Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 wants, among others, changes and delays in the emissions trading system, which is to cover the building heating and transport sectors in a few years. The left arguably has the most ambitious agenda on climate, energy and the environment. But he also assesses that there was a lack of social consultations around the Green Deal and wants to fix it. “Change the Green Deal” – this is the slogan of Anna-Maria Żukowska, leader of the leftist lists in Mazovia, running for the European Parliament.

“It’s fashionable to criticize the Green Deal today”

As Krzysztof Mrozek from the Polska Zielona Sieć organization, who looked at the party’s programs, points out, most of them lack specifics. We have general slogans (“Stop the Green Deal”) or punk demands (“Change the ETS system”) rather than more comprehensive programs regarding changes in the EU’s climate policy.

Only the Left and – of course in a negative way – the Confederation pay more attention to the need to change green policy. “It is fashionable today to criticize the European Green Deal at a political rally or in a TV studio, but the programs of most parties prove that they have no idea how to change it,” writes Mrozek. There are few specific ideas on how billions of euros from subsequent European funds and the new EU budget are to be spent. There is practically no talk in the campaign about the Polish presidency of the EU, which falls next year (and at a key moment when the work of the new European Commission begins).

The Confederation will “stop the Green Deal” as if it “overturned the table”

Political slogans and promises in the election campaign often do not measure the strength of intentions, and politicians carelessly make promises that they will not fulfill later. This campaign is no different, and the more radical the demands, the less likely they are. The fact that the Confederation and its few MEPs will “stop the Green Deal” seems as likely as the promise to “overturn the table” of national politics that we heard before the parliamentary elections.

According to current polls, the Confederation will introduce several (maybe 5-7) MEPs to the European Parliament. In the scale of the entire parliament – which will have 720 MEPs – large, international groups count. Will the Confederation join any of the groups? It is closest to the far-right group Identity and Democracy, but it is now impossible to say what exactly the balance of forces and groups will be after the June elections. However, even if the extreme right gains seats in the entire parliament, it is difficult to expect that it will dictate the conditions for the rest, and not all extreme groups have views consistent with the Confederation when it comes to the Green Deal.

In the Polish campaign, PiS also talks about “stopping the Green Deal”. However, will these slogans translate into action in Brussels? The European Conservatives and Reformists group, to which PiS belongs, is not the most enthusiastic about green policies, but it does not announce its rejection. In the “Vision for Europe”, which the ECR, the Conservatives… boast and show as their achievement the adoption of the Emissions Trading System, which is sharply criticized by some politicians of the United Right. In the priorities they do not write about “rejecting” the Green Deal, but about focusing on achieving the adopted goals. They oppose new, more ambitious plans, as well as, among others, phasing out new combustion cars from 2035. With such priorities for the entire group, it is difficult to expect that the “green madness” – as some PiS politicians describe EU policy – will be completely rejected.

Point changes have a greater chance, although far from certain. Greater dialogue and social consultations regarding the Green Deal, as proposed by the Left, seem to be an uncontroversial postulate. The delay in the entry into force of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in the transport and building heating sectors, as announced by Poland 2050, may be much more difficult. The regulations were adopted several years ago (incidentally, during the PiS government) and are now at the stage of preparation for entry into force. It is true that they include a mechanism allowing to delay the start of the system by one year (until 2028), but to postpone it, e.g. to the beginning of the 2030s or later, would require the opening of the entire process and the consent of the Parliament and the majority of EU countries. Will Poland 2050 convince most of Europe to accept this idea? It certainly wouldn’t be an easy task.

Green Deal to be improved, not rejected

Changes regarding climate policy can be expected in the new term of office of the European Parliament – after all, it is not carved in stone, reality is changing, and regulations need to be adapted to it. However, promises to completely “stop the green deal” are just election slogans, because the probability of their implementation is slim, if any. The politicians who proclaim them must be aware of this.

An amendment, not rejection of the Green Deal, is also the expectation of the majority of Poles, as shown by research commissioned by the More in Common organization. – We largely share the negative assessment of the Green Deal, as it was expressed at these protests. We believe that it is too much of a burden, that it will bring greater losses than benefits, that it will be a burden on the economy and will result in increases in energy prices. At the same time, we do not want to reject the Green Deal in its entirety or abandon climate ambitions, he said.

– The Green Deal has become such a whipping boy. A very convenient whipping boy, but mainly because the government does not have its own positive story. It is very difficult for citizens to see direct, tangible benefits in the Green Deal slogan