The starting signal for what are probably the most important European elections in recent decades. At stake is the future of the bloc, its identity and the role it plays in all the extraordinary events and crises that the entire world is currently facing. The European PP has already shown its cards and has taken a clear step in its intentions about what it could do after June 9. A few hours before starting the electoral campaign, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged that she will agree with the extreme right if necessary.

This was expressed in a debate between candidates held this Thursday, and in which the extreme right did not participate. In this meeting, the candidate of the European Popular Party (EPP) has avoided directly pointing out far-right groups such as the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) or Identity and Democracy (ID), but she has extended her hand to the Italian Prime Minister. Regarding Giorgia Meloni, Von der Leyen has assured that they both work “very well.” A very important nuance, given that on June 9, Europe will put its identity at stake.

He will do so in a unique context in which the rise of the extreme right seems to threaten the tranquility of the European Parliament. All this in the midst of the agreements on ecological transition, whose reforms do not seem to be going at the speed expected to combat climate change, and the controversial pacts on immigration, which are exposing the great divisions between member states in an EU that could see their own solidarity in danger. An exceptional situation marked, furthermore, by the Putin’s war in Ukraine and the tremendous offensive of Netanyahu’s Israel in Palestinian territory.

The elections, which will start on June 6 in some countries and will end on Sunday the 9th in Spain, will be key to defining the future of the Europe to come. This last term, the European Union has had to face different crises that mostly came from abroad. Now the very stability of the EU is at stake, as well as the unity of the 27 countries that make it up.

The European PP is open to agreeing with the extreme right

But despite the numerous fronts that the EU has open, the specter of an increasingly present and strong far-right seems to mark unprecedented elections. For the first time in its history, Parliament could have a right-wing majority and the rise of the extreme right could cause a strong shake-up in the current balance of forces in the European Parliament.

Added to this is that some right-wing candidates have opened up to agreeing with the ultras. The last to do so was the president of the European Commission herself, Ursula von der Leyen. In the debate of the European top candidates this Thursday, the candidate of the European Popular Party (EPP) said that she will make an agreement with the extreme right if necessary and has drawn her red line on “Putin’s friends” and the rule of law. .

“We will work with all those who are committed to Europe,” stated Von der Leyen, who clarified that she is not speaking “about groups, but about MEPs” to avoid referring to specific forces, after listing what will be the red lines of her alliances: “Pro Europe, pro Ukraine and the rule of law.”

The candidate of the Spanish PP, Dolors Montserrat did not clarify during the face-to-face meeting held in laSexta this Wednesday whether her party will agree with the far-right in case your support is needed to maintain power in the European Commission. But this Thursday the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has opened up to maintaining pacts with the far-right leader and Italian Prime Minister, Georgia Meloni. “It doesn’t seem comparable to other far-right parties,” Feijóo said this Thursday at a colloquium organized by the Cercle d’Economia in Barcelona.

The rest of the parties maintain their cordon sanitaire

But not all parties agree to break this cordon sanitaire which seemed to be unbreakable in Europe. The rest of the candidates to preside over the European Commission, those known as spitzenkandidaten, they refuse to half-open that door that they saw as closed. Neither the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) candidate, the Luxembourger Nicolas Schmit; nor the liberal of Renew Sandro Gozi; Neither the German and candidate for the Greens, Terry Reintke, agree with Von der Leyen.

In the debate held this Thursday, upon seeing that the European PP would agree with the extreme right if necessary, Schmit warned Von der Leyen that the “red line” of the socialists to collaborate with her will be their approach to extreme groups. right of the Conservatives and Reformists and Identity and Democracy, which he does not consider “democratic forces.”

For his part, the representative of the European Liberals (Renew Europe), Sandro Gozi, has also pointed out Von der Leyen and the connivance of the European People’s Party (EPP) with the radical right, criticizing that “they are willing to open themselves” to agree with the group of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in which Vox and the far-right Brothers of Italy of Italy are now integrated. Giorgia Meloni.

Also the candidate of the Greens, Terry Reintke, has warned that if the ‘popular’ work with the Conservatives and Reformists “the entire Green Pact would be invalidated”, which would be, as she lamented, a “disaster for future generations “, while asking the liberals to give a “clear signal now” and expel the PVV from their parliamentary group.

The red lines are increasingly blurred in different European countries. The extreme right governs in Italy, in Hungary, in Finland and Slovakia, in Sweden it is allied with the government and in France they are the first opposition party.

It is feared that since the elections do not coincide with others, as has happened on other occasions, abstention will increase among the electorate, which could benefit extreme right-wing parties.

Recognition of Palestine divides the EU

Political tension and polarization are the protagonists of key elections in Europe where cases of political violence have even been seen, such as the assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

And not only that. Another issue that has divided the EU has been the Israel-Palestine conflict. Since October 7, discrepancies have increased between Member States. Not only because of the differences in condemnations of Israel or calls for a ceasefire. Also in the arrest and detention order for Israeli leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And even in the recognition of the Palestinian State by Spain, Ireland and Norway.

This conflict adds to Russia’s war with Ukraine that has been harming the European Union for two years now and that fully affects the European model. The migration issue, climate change and the problem of housing for young people are other issues facing the EU.

Precisely this month of April, The European Parliament gave the green light to the Migration and Asylum Pact which will reform the common policy with greater control of the external borders of the European Union and offer governments ‘solidarity à la carte’ that will allow them to avoid reception by relocated migrants if they pay compensation for each rejected transfer.

Among the keys to the new rules are a faster examination of asylum applications, also at the EU’s external borders, and measures to ensure more effective deportations compared to the current low rates. Identification upon arrival on community soil will also be improved and health, security and vulnerability controls will be mandatory for migrants arriving via irregular routes.

The PSOE would win the European elections with a five-point lead over the PP, according to the CIS

This same Thursday the CIS has published the preview of results of the study ‘Pre-electoral elections to the European Parliament 2024’ in which it states that the PSOE will win the European elections with five points ahead of the PP. The study revalidates the victory of the socialists and gives the PSOE between 21 and 24 seats and between 32.8 and 35.2% of the votes for the candidacy led by Teresa Ribera. The PP, led by Dolors Montserratwould achieve between 18 and 20 seats (27.9-30.2% of the votes), which represents a notable rise, but would still be far from the PSOE, five points behind. The third force would be Voxwith between 5 and 6 seats and between 8.6 and 10.1% of the votes, a result that would improve the support received in the previous call.

Sumar would reach 4 seats (between 5.9 and 7.2% of the votes). Podemos would retain between two and three of the six MEPs it obtained in 2019 when it participated in the elections alongside Izquierda Unida. Citizens would collapse going from seven to between one and two MEPs, according to the sampling carried out from 6,534 interviews carried out from May 8 to 17. As a novelty, the CIS anticipates the entry into the European chamber of the ‘The party is over’ candidacy with between 1 and 2 MEPs.