Grandma’s house or not? Ómicron upsets Christmas plans

Dave Fravel and his wife invited family members to their Cape Cod home for Christmas to share food, gifts and the company they longed for on the lonely days of the pandemic. They were also looking forward to a sightseeing trip to New York City.

But the coronavirus ruined all those plans. Cases have skyrocketed in their state of Massachusetts and the supercontagious omicron variant is spreading across the world, so they feared spreading the virus even before Fravel’s 18-year-old son Colin fell ill with COVID-19.

Rich England has already been through this. In the summer, when the delta variant was spreading, he turned down a Christmas vacation with his parents and his sister’s family in London and Scotland. But he, his wife and their two-year-old daughter are keeping plans to take a four-day trip from their home in Alexandria, Virginia, to Miami on December 31.

“The safest thing would be to say ‘Oh my gosh, we have to cancel’“, He said. “But there are many letters in the Greek alphabet, there will be variants after omicron. You cannot respond to each variant with a closure ”.

For the second year in a row, the ever-changing virus poses a difficult dilemma for those who want to celebrate: cancel gatherings and holiday trips, or find a way to do it as safely as possible. Many health experts plead with people not to let their guard down.

The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, explained it crudely this week when he said that “a canceled event is better than a canceled life”.

But pandemic fatigue is real. And while travel restrictions in some places have forced cancellations, many governments have been reluctant to order more quarantines, increasingly leaving decisions about who to see and where to go to the people.

The mystery surrounding omicron further complicates matters. Scientists already know that it expands rapidly, perhaps up to three times faster than the delta variant. It also appears to be better at avoiding vaccines, although booster doses increase protection, especially against hospitalization and death. But a crucial question remains: Does omicron cause a less serious disease than delta? Some studies suggest that this is the case, but they are preliminary.

Although it is milder, omicron could still exceed hospitals due to the high number of infections. That makes it difficult to gauge how long to cut back on the festivities.

In the United States, infections average 149,000 a day, and authorities declared this week that omicron had replaced delta as the dominant variant. In Britain, where an omicron-fueled rally has been seen as a harbinger of what to expect for many European countries, daily new cases reached 100,000 for the first time on Tuesday. France, Spain and Italy have also registered spikes in infections.

Fravel and his wife, Sue Malomo, who are software developers with six children between the two, are concerned about omicron and delta. Fravel, 51, says they canceled the trip to New York City because “the idea of ​​being in those big crowds didn’t seem to make much sense. “

Nor did he have it gather many people at his home. Normally, between 20 and 25 people pass by between Christmas Eve and Christmas. But this year only his children will go, and not at the same time.

“Right now the plan is for everyone to stay in small groups”Or make video calls, Fravel said.

England, an energy lobbyist, also studied his options and decided they could make the trip. He and his wife received booster doses, which gave him peace of mind, even though his daughter is too young to be vaccinated.

“We chose Miami in part because we could eat exclusively outdoors and then hang out at the beach and pool ”, He said. But even so, he has doubts. By Tuesday night, they were still “80 to 20 in favor of going”.

Colombian Julieta Aranguren has already started her journey. Aranguren, 18, was on a stopover in Madrid on Wednesday on his way to Dubai, where he planned to spend time with family. He had spent thousands of dollars on flights and hotels, booked nine months earlier, so he said he was not considering canceling it.

But he still had doubts. His group planned to shop, dine out and visit the World Expo in Dubai, so “it definitely wouldn’t be much fun if they start imposing more restrictions”, He commented.

It was not yet clear which path most people would take. Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, lowered its forecast for December passenger numbers from 11 million to 10 million, CEO Michael O’Leary told the Guardian newspaper last week.

Several airlines in the United States were optimistic.

For the period between December 17 and January 3, Delta Air Lines expected to carry about eight million travelers, more than double the holiday season last year, but down from 9.3 million passengers in 2019. American Airlines estimated to make about 5,000 daily flights between December 19 and January 1, compared with 3,700 at the same time the year before. But there were many more -6,300- during the holidays in 2019.

The two airlines noted that international travel was the most affected by the omicron variant.

It was the case of Alex Wong. The Toronto freelance journalist and radio producer canceled a mid-December flight to New York that would have been his first trip since the onset of the pandemic. He was concerned about being trapped in quarantine upon his return, which would have prevented him from seeing his family during the holidays.

“Every day I feel better and I think I made the right decision”He said in a text message. On Wednesday he will receive a booster dose of the vaccine, and this weekend he will visit his parents, who live nearby.

It’s the kind of balanced calculus that many experts recommend.

Mattew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, said people should consider getting a rapid COVID-19 test on the day of the meeting, or better yet, a PCR, which is more reliable, with 24 hours in advance. But experts caution that diagnostic tests are not a shield against infection.

“It is a good idea to reconsider large travel plans or meetings in large groups.”, He declared.

Small groups of less than 10 people can meet safely by ensuring everyone is vaccinated, wearing a mask indoors, and encouraging those most vulnerable to serious illness to stay home. Other experts suggest opening windows to improve ventilation and staying outside as much as possible.

“For me, the holidays are a time to think about others. Often times this is expressed through gifts, charitable donations or volunteering ”Binnicker said. “But this year there is another excellent way to think about others, and that is to take precautions to stop the spread of COVID-19 and the flu. “