Severe rain and snowfall can favor the occurrence of earthquakes

Atmospheric phenomena as heavy snowfall or severe rain can increase the chances of occurrence earthquakes, according to a study partially carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published this Wednesday.

Scientists have discovered that, in addition to looking for the causes of earthquakes in the collision of tectonic plates or the movement of faults, we must also pay attention to the climate as “second order factor”.

This pioneering research has already monitored some earthquakes that have occurred in recent years – plus other current tremors – in Japan that could have been conditioned by previous meteorological phenomena.

“We see that snowfall and other surface environmental loads influence the stress state of the subsurface, and that the timing of intense precipitation is closely related,” said William Frank, co-author of the study and associate professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) at MIT.

The project also included former MIT research associate Qing-Yu Wang, now at the University of Grenoble Alpes; with EAPS doctor Xin Cui; Yang Lu, from the University of Vienna; Takashi Hirose, from Tohoku University, and Kazushige Obara, from the University of Tokyo.

The MIT team, together with their Japanese colleagues, tried to detect patterns that would explain the persistence of earthquakes on the Noto Peninsula (Japan) since the end of 2020, where, according to the study, multiple continuous earthquakes have occurred without a shake. initial trigger or a clear trigger, as is usually the case.

They consulted the earthquake record from the Japan Meteorological Agency, and from monitoring points across the country, for the past 11 years, to get an idea of ​​the speed at which a seismic wave traveled between these stations.

Thus, the researchers generated an evolutionary image of seismic velocity under the Noto Peninsula and observed that since 2020 changes in wave speed appeared to be synchronized with the seasons.

“When it rains or snows, that adds weight, which increases pore pressure, which allows seismic waves to travel more slowly, and when all that weight is removed, through evaporation or runoff, suddenly that pore pressure decreases.” and seismic waves are faster”Frank explained.

In this way, they found that the succession of earthquakes that the inhabitants of Noto are suffering can be explained in part by seasonal rainfall and, in particular, by heavy snowfall.

“We see that the moment in which the earthquakes occur coincides perfectly with the moments in which intense snowfall occurs,” explained Frank, although he stressed that these are “second-order factors.” and that the main trigger will always originate underground.

Scholars now suspect that this new connection between earthquakes and climate may not be unique to Japan and may play a role in seismic activity in other parts of the world.

Furthermore, they predict that the influence of climate on earthquakes could be more pronounced with global warming because if we enter a “changing climate with more extreme rainfall”will be modified “the way the earth’s crust is charged” and “sure” which will have an impact on the tremors.

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