La Niña fears rise among Brazilian soy producers

The impact of the La Niña weather pattern, which is expected to shake up global food markets in the coming months, is already showing up in parts of Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter.

In 20 years as a soybean farmer, Adriano Marco Vivian I had never seen its fields so dry, with leaves scorched by excessive heat and lack of rain. La Niña can mean drought in many growing areas, including southern Brazil.

“I think about 70% of the performance potential has been lost“Vivian, located in Paraná, one of the states with the highest production in the south of the country, said in a telephone interview.

“We have not had widespread rains in more than 60 days “said the farmer, who planted 700 hectares of soybeans in the west of the state. The picture is similar for all producers in the region, he said.

Dry conditions and heat led Paraná’s agricultural agency Deral to reduce its estimate for production in the state by 12% on Wednesday, and it could be higher if adverse weather continues, it said. Marcelo garrido, economist of Deral.

The prospect of a second straight crop in which La Niña damages what is expected to be a bumper crop is helping to boost soybean prices and increase concerns about global food inflation.

Some local consultancies have already lowered the estimate for Brazil’s soybean production due to yield losses in the south. That is the case of AgRural, based in Paraná, which cut its production estimate to 144.7 million tons, from 145.4 million in the previous forecast.

For now, the farmers of Paraná were an exception in Brazil, where the favorable climate has allowed a good development of crops in the central and northern areas.

“Brazil is still expected to get a record harvest ”, said on the phone Daniele Siqueira, Analist of AgRural. “Paraná is the only region with consolidated losses so far”.

All eyes will remain on the south of Brazil. Rio Grande do Sul, a high-growth state on the border with Argentina, reported below-average rainfall during planting, which is almost over.

Some farms needed to be replanted, but the yields won’t be known until next year. If abundant rains fall from now on, the state could still register a good harvest.