Iran attacks Israel at a time of internal tensions

The direct attack of Iran to Israel The weekend was a radical departure from decades of war of clandestine operations carried out by third parties, something that Tehran has used to cushion the international repercussions of its actions. But with economic and political tensions simmering within it, the country’s Shiite theocracy has chosen a new path as changes await the Islamic Republic.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will turn 85 on Friday — with no clear successor in sight — and he is still the final arbiter of every decision Iran makes. He came to power after Iran’s devastating eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, and preached for years about “strategic patience” by confronting his government’s main rivals—Israel and the United States—to avoid open combat.

That led Iran to invest more in regional militias to harass Israel — such as Hamas in the Gaza Strip or Hezbollah in Lebanon — and to contain the United States, such as with the militias that planted devastating improvised explosives that killed American troops during the war. from Iraq. This has even extended to impoverished Yemen, where Iran’s supply of weapons to the Houthi rebels strengthened their takeover of the capital and put in check a Saudi-led coalition, still trapped in a years-long war.

That strategy changed on Saturday. After days of warnings, Iran launched 170 bomb-carrying drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel, according to an Israeli count. Those weapons included the same bomb-carrying drones that Iran supplied to Russia for its war against Ukraine.

Even though Israel and the United States said that the 99% Of those projectiles were shot down, Iran called the attack a success. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Monday that the attack was “to deter, punish and warn the Zionist regimeto”. Khamenei himself had also requested that Iran “punish” to Israel.

The trigger for the attack came on April 1, when a suspected Israeli strike hit a consular building attached to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing at least 12 people, including a senior commander of the Iranian expeditionary Quds Force. Iran’s paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

However, for years, Iran and Israel have attacked each other’s interests throughout the Middle East.

Israel is suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaging atomic facilities in the Islamic Republic. In Syria, Israel has repeatedly bombed airports, likely to disrupt Iranian weapons shipments, in addition to killing other Guard officers. On the other hand, Iran is suspected of carrying out a series of bomb and gun attacks against Jews and Israeli interests over decades.

But the embassy bombing struck a chord with the Iranian government. ““Attacking our consulate is like attacking our soil,” Khamenei said on April 10.

It also came amid a time filled with uncertainty for Iran. As Khamenei ages, power has become increasingly consolidated in the country.

Hardliners control all mechanisms of power, both within the security services and political bodies, and the relative moderates who once guided the existence of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers are no longer influential.

That includes former President Hassan Rouhani, who led the effort. Authorities barred Rouhani earlier this year from running again for his seat in the Assembly of Experts, the body of 88 clerics that will choose Iran’s next supreme leader.

The control of power by the most extremist supporters has caused electoral participation to fall to its lowest level since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Their absolute dominance also makes them the only political faction to blame: the people remain outraged due to the collapse of Iran’s economy.

The demise of the nuclear deal, after former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, has sent Iran’s currency, the rial, tumbling, now hovering near record lows: it was trading at 658,000 on Monday. per dollar, compared with 32,000 when the agreement was reached almost a decade ago.

Tehran prosecutors have already launched a criminal investigation against the Jahan-e Sanaat newspaper and a journalist for an article about the possible economic impact of Iran’s attack on Israel. Mizan, the judiciary’s news agency, described the report as “disturbing the psychological security of society and making the economic atmosphere of the country turbulent”.

His case comes as other journalists and activists report that they have been summoned by authorities, heralding a new crackdown on any sign of dissent in the country.

There are also signs that authorities appear to be preparing to force women to abide by the country’s laws on mandatory hijab or veil use.

“The police in Tehran – as in all other provinces – will begin to punish all violations of the law related to the hijab”said Brigadier General Abbas Ali Mohammadian, Tehran’s police chief, according to the semi-official ISNA (Iranian Students News Agency) news agency.

Some women in Tehran still walk the streets with their hair uncovered, an ongoing protest since the 2022 national protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, arrested by police for not wearing a hijab in the way they consider appropriate. United Nations investigators say Iran was responsible for Amini’s death and that it violently suppressed largely peaceful protests in a months-long campaign by its security forces that killed more than 500 people and detained more than 22,000.

A new effort to enforce the wearing of the hijab may reignite that anger, particularly in Tehran. Meanwhile, rumors persist that the government may soon raise heavily subsidized gasoline prices. A price increase in 2019 escalated into nationwide anti-government protests that reportedly led to the deaths of more than 300 people and thousands of arrests.

Those tensions, coupled with hardliners’ grip on power and Khamenei’s age, indicate that more changes are coming for the country. And although Iran said of its attack on Saturday that “the matter can be considered concluded” even before the missiles hit Israel, that does not mean there will not be further retaliation from the country.

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