These numbers speak for themselves. It is Poland that has gained the most from joining the EU in the 21st century

Many indicators and economic aggregates prove that Poland was the largest beneficiary of EU membership among all the countries in the region that joined the Community in 2004 and later years.

– Pekao economists write in their report. As they calculate, between 2004 and 2022, Poland’s GDP increased by 100 percent. This is much more than, for example, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries. In the entire EU, only tiny Malta recorded a higher economic growth rate, as well as Ireland, known for the fact that due to tax preferences for global corporations, its GDP data do not tell everything about the state of the economy. The entire EU economy grew by only 27 percent during this time.

These sectors gained the most upon accession to the EU

Experts point out that the greatest gains upon accession to the European Union include, among others: service sector (business services and information and communication) and industrial processing. These sectors have grown more than twice as much as the entire EU combined. In fact, however, in as many as eight large sectors of the economy, Poland has been in the EU’s TOP3 in terms of the scale of growth since 2004.

Other successes mentioned by Pekao experts in the report include: much greater importance of Polish exports and an additional USD 200 billion of foreign direct investments (FDI) in our country. In terms of value, it is definitely the most of all new EU countries (those that joined the EU in 2004 or later) – this is quite obvious due to the size of the economy. It is also not that much less than, for example, Italy, whose economy is much larger. On the other hand, in terms of the share of FDI in GDP, they were not as crucial in Poland as in smaller countries, e.g. the Czech Republic, Estonia and Croatia.

Poland has a good future, but also challenges

Pekao analysts emphasize that Poland will remain one of the largest beneficiaries of EU funds. EU membership also guarantees us access to the EU market and provides protection against competition from low-cost suppliers from third countries.

EU protectionism will be strengthened by the geopolitical situation (war in Ukraine and China’s position). Europe, due to its growing dependence on the Middle Kingdom, may be inclined to strengthen local supply chains (nearshoring). Poland is already being pointed out as a potential major beneficiary of this process

– they write. They note that “the potential to further increase the share of intra-Community trade remains significant.” In this context, business opportunities should be sought, among others: in more distant Western European countries (e.g. France, Italy, Spain) – these are large markets, but so far poorly penetrated by Polish companies. The map below shows this.

On the other hand, we face challenges, including those related to many years of neglect. This is primarily the fact that Poland remains one of the most energy-intensive and emission-intensive EU economies.

The share of zero-emission technologies in electricity production is the lowest in the entire EU, and the high costs of CO2 emission allowances drive up electricity prices, which are already more expensive than the EU average. This and the specter of penalizing Polish companies for their above-average emission levels make accelerating the energy transformation one of our investment priorities.

– Pekao economists note. They point out that for some industrial sectors the consequences of the recent increases in energy prices were very severe. They add that “certain shortcomings, which in the coming years will affect the costs of Polish enterprises, also persist in the area of ​​waste management (especially recycling of plastic packaging waste)”.

Experts indicate that there is still a lot to do in the area of ​​investments. We also lag behind other countries in the region in terms of investment in research and development.

While we have strengthened our position in the EU in almost all processing branches over the last 20 years, the relatively weakest progress has been recorded in knowledge-intensive sectors, characterized by higher innovation, technological advancement and wage levels. In industries such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals and machinery, our shares in EU exports are low, and the foreign trade balance is clearly negative (usually much more than at the time of accession).

– we read in Pekao’s analysis.