Who will be Maduro’s rival? Venezuela’s opposition is cornered

A judicial offensive against the already disqualified Maria Corina Machado It further complicates the electoral panorama for the Venezuelan opposition. Who replaces the president’s main rival Nicolas Maduro? Any successor may end up banned.

The application period for the July 28 elections opens this Thursday and will close on Monday. What options does the opposition have? Few: the authorities, and the electoral system and schedule, work against him.

1) Insist with Machado

The nomination of candidates is done through an automated system in which the candidate registers by identity document number: Machado must be banned, given her prohibition from holding public office for 15 years, accused of corruption and advocating for a foreign invasion, which she rejects. The prosecution linked her on Wednesday to “destabilizing actions”, although without filing charges against him. Seven collaborators, however, were detained and seven others have an arrest warrant, including his right-hand woman, Magalli Meda, who appeared as a possible replacement.

Machado crossed out these actions as “brutal repression”.“They know they are defeated, because there is no way they can win an election against us”The liberal leader swept the opposition primaries held on October 22, 2023 and the polls put her as the winner against Maduro, with 70% acceptance in some cases.“Maduro knows that he cannot face anyone who can get the upper hand.” 30% of the vote”, explains political scientist Luis Salamanca to AFP. Most polls give the president popularity among fifteen% and twenty%.

2) Siamese candidate

After a kind of ‘raid’ of the electoral authority, the opposition has only two authorized partisan ballots: that of the MUD, the old alliance replaced by the current Unitary Platform (PUD), and that of Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT), of Manuel Rosales, which faced Hugo Chávez in the 2006 presidential elections, was in exile in Peru and is now governor of the oil state of Zulia (west).

This translates into just two candidates, which could also be rejected and would have no opportunity for replacement. That is why it is not so easy for Machado to designate a front candidate to whom he can raise his hand to try to convey his very high voting intention, because “That someone is not guaranteed to be let through either,” Salamanca emphasizes. The registration of the application in the system does not automatically become a candidacy; it first requires the approval of the National Electoral Council (CNE), accused of serving Chavismo. If denied, the PUD can only support another accepted candidate.

3) Third line

The option of a traditional opposition candidate is being debated, but at the same time “potable” for Chavismo. The first name that was heard was that of Gerardo Blyde, head of the opposition delegation at the dialogue table with the Norwegian government.

He is not disqualified, he did not openly support sanctions, he is close to Machado and has an open channel with Chavismo through negotiation.“It is not in my will to reach that position”, he said in a recent radio interview. Another option is Rosales, who does not enjoy Machado’s favor, although they met on Tuesday, according to the media.”I do not find politically viable today the possibility of a candidacy that does not have the support of Machado and his electoral base“said Guillermo Tell Aveledo, professor of Political Studies.

4) “Scorpion” effect

“Scorpion” It is a term coined in Venezuela to politicians who call themselves anti-Chavista, but labeled as collaborating with Chavismo. Leaders such as José Brito or Luis Ratti have said that they will be candidates. Both are in direct confrontation with Machado and the PUD, to the point of asking the courts for action to remove them from the electoral game.

There is also the comedian Benjamín Rauseo, known as ‘El Conde del Guácharo’, who is accused of serving as a dividing factor in the opposition vote.“Maduro has to clean up this whole panorama to guard against surprises.””, indicates Salamanca. “Maduro is formatting the electoral landscape to have tailored elections.”

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