With the resignation of the prime minister, what future awaits Haiti?

The resignation of Ariel Henry As Prime Minister of Haiti, he put an end this Monday to days of pressure for him to cede power, both from his international partners and from the gangs that ravage the country. But with him gone, what near future awaits the impoverished Caribbean nation?

Who is going to lead Haiti?

Henry indicated in the early hours of Tuesday that he accepted “the establishment of a transitional presidential council”. The current government will handle current affairs until the appointment of a new prime minister and an executive, he said.

The transitional authority will be composed of seven voting members, Irfaan Ali, the president of Guyana and temporary leader of the Caribbean Community, explained Monday night (Caricom), after an urgent international meeting on the crisis in Haiti.

Its members will represent the largest political forces: the December 21 collective, of the outgoing prime minister; the EDE/RED coalition, close to the assassinated president Jovenel Moïse; the center-left Fanmi Lavalas, of former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide; the Montana Agreement, a group that proposed an interim government after Moïse’s assassination, and the leftist Pitit Desalin.

None of the members may have been accused or convicted in any jurisdiction, nor may they be sanctioned by the UN or intend to run in the next elections in the country.

According to US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, the new transitional council, which will appoint an interim prime minister before general elections are held, must be formed “within 24 to 48 hours”.

The country has been without a president or parliament since 2021, when Moïse was assassinated, and has not held elections since 2016. In addition, it has faced strong protests in recent weeks.

What to expect from the new council?

For Gédéon Léon, founder of the Haitian NGO Center for Analysis and Research in Human Rights (CARDH), the creation of that authority “It is not the ideal political solution (…), but it allows the major trends to be brought together and presents a much more inclusive approach”.

An opinion shared by Keith Mines, former diplomat and vice president of the Latin America program at the American Institute of Peace.

The transition is “really a huge and unexpected step and, frankly, if it hadn’t been for the security crisis, it probably wouldn’t have happened”says the expert, according to whom Haitians had been seeking a more representative and transparent government for a long time.

Now it remains to be seen if the parties will be able to put aside their numerous disagreements of recent years to “work for the national interest”says, for his part, Ivan Briscoe, director of the Program for Latin America and the Caribbean of the International Crisis Group.

We will also have to wait for the reaction of the armed gangs to see if they let the new authorities work, he explains.

“For now, we cannot say that any fundamental change has occurred in the country, we are only witnessing a political change”says Briscoe. “But the reality on the ground remains that gangs dominate virtually everything”.

What legitimacy will this authority have?

Briscoe points to a clear obstacle for the new government: the poor image of politicians in the country.

“The political system and parties as a whole are discredited in Haiti”, he assures. “So simply creating a government out of them is not going to change the legitimacy deficit, which Henry and Moïse already faced.”.

“So far the emergence of new political figures has not been seen”says Léon, who warns about a vacuum that criminal gangs could occupy.

“In my opinion, in the current political situation, gangs have become a force”says the Haitian expert. “We have to be careful that their criminal actions – rapes, massacres and serious human rights abuses – are not legitimized”.