Why there will be many jobs in the future, even with artificial intelligence

In the early 1960s, when the computer revolution was taking its first steps, a committee of scientists and social activists sent an open letter to the president of the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson. “The cybernetic revolution”they said, will create “a separate nation of the poor, unskilled and unemployed” that they will not be able to find work or afford to cover their vital needs, they argued.

Three decades earlier, in the 1930s, according to The Atlantic, a California mayor wrote to the president of the United States that industrial technology was a “Frankenstein monster” that threatened to wipe out the manufacturing industry and “devour our civilization”.

These catastrophic predictions about how new technologies would lead to a worse world turned out to be completely wrong, as have many previous predictions about the effects of new technologies.

But at the last meeting of the World Economic Forum Déjà vu occurred in Davos. An IMF report concluded that 40% of jobs around the world will be affected by AI. In advanced economies, that figure will rise to 60% of jobs that will be affected by machine learning, with around half negatively impacted. The losers will face lower wages and fewer hiring, and some jobs will disappear entirely.

Over the past 200 years, predictions about future employment declines have generally proven false. The pessimists have been wrong repeatedly. But make no mistake: hundreds of millions of jobs have been destroyed. First, agricultural technology replaced millions of agricultural jobs, while the industrial revolution moved people into factories. Later, automation took them out of factories, giving rise to a service economy.

However, throughout these waves of creative destruction, the total number of people employed has increased. Today there are a record number of people employed around the world and in almost every country.

But this time it will be different because the AI ​​is different. Technology will not always help people do their jobs, but will mainly replace jobs. However, new types of jobs will emerge.

Imagining a new world of work

Imagine yourself as a farm worker 120 years ago – like about three-quarters of all people at the time. Would you have been able to imagine a world in which only one in 20 people worked on farms? Could you have foreseen the variety of new jobs available to workers today? Even 20 years ago, economists probably wouldn’t have predicted that today there would be 800,000 personal trainers in the US and 2.5 million jobs in the app development industry.

We may experience the same difficulty today when trying to imagine the new and unknown jobs of the future. We can’t see the future, but we can change our perspective on the potential creation of new jobs by asking broader questions.

First, are all of our current needs met? For example, would we want higher quality food? Would we want better services from companies or public organizations? Do we want more efficient or better designed products? Do we want to improve our physical and mental health? New features could be created to satisfy these needs and wants.

Second, will new needs arrive as our society evolves, as we seek solutions to our current global challenges, and as new innovations arrive? A future equivalent to today’s smartphone could create entirely new employment sectors. We may not be able to imagine it today, but if the patterns of the last 200 years continue, these jobs will come.

Third, will increased demand for products and services create new jobs? New technology will eliminate some jobs, yes. But in many cases, it will help a worker do a better and more efficient job, reducing the cost of production. When products and services become more affordable, demand usually increases.

Finally, and perhaps most relevant: What is the best way for policymakers and public agencies to facilitate the dynamic creation and rotation of the labor market towards new jobs? This will be especially important if, as is likely, Creative destruction and job changes continue, possibly at a greater rate than ever before.

Invest in new technologies and jobs

Small and medium-sized businesses create a disproportionate number of new jobs around the world. Therefore, the freedom of entrepreneurs and investors to create and grow companies will be more critical than ever as new technologies become more available.

A more flexible and free labor market should allow for faster movements between sectors and companies as the nature of jobs changes. This means that nations that are less attractive to businesses and investors due to less economic freedom and overly regulated labor markets may suffer more unemployment. Alternatively, nations with open and free markets will continue to create new jobs to replace those lost.

The creative destruction resulting from technological development can lead to difficult times and new challenges for many people, as well as for entire cities and regions. Governments can play an important role in alleviating this situation, offering opportunities or support programs for reskilling, as well as unemployment benefits and other forms of transitional safety nets.

During the Industrial Revolution, local and national governments made large public investments to teach the reading, writing, and mathematics skills necessary for the new jobs of the time. Investment was also made in new roads, ports and other infrastructure. In this new era, we need public investments in digital skills for all, as well as digital highways that allow regions to participate in new economic opportunities.

As we all try to imagine the new and unknown jobs of the future, we must ask ourselves the right questions about new technologies and how they will affect our work and our industries. By changing our perspective on how new jobs can emerge from new technologies, we can ensure that AI brings about change that works for everyone.

From: Henrik Ekelund

Founder and Chairman, BTS Group