El Niño may cause record average temperatures this year in some areas

The actual El Niño phenomenon could cause in several areas of the planet, such as the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines, the sea Caribbeanhe Amazon or Alaska, record average surface temperatures will be recorded until June 2024.

A model-based study published today by Scientific Report and signed by Chinese researchers suggests that there is an estimated probability of 90% of record global average surface temperatures during the same period under a moderate or strong El Niño scenario.

The team, led by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, modeled the effects of the 2023-24 El Niño on the regional variation in mean surface air temperatures relative to the 1951-1980 average between July 2023 and June 2024.

They used that period to ensure that the typical peak of an El Niño event, which occurs between November and January, was always included.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, centered in the tropical Pacific, is a key driver of climate variability around the world and both its warm phase, El Niño, and its colder phase, La Niña, influence weather conditions.

The reason is that the heat released into the atmosphere from the western Pacific Ocean during El Niño causes an accelerated increase in the average annual temperatures of the Earth’s surface, which has been closely related to significant increases in surface air temperatures during episodes. of extreme regional warming.

Unprecedented temperatures possible

Under a moderate El Niño scenario, models suggest that the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines would see record-breaking average surface air temperatures during that period.

If a strong event is taken into account, the Caribbean Sea, the South China Sea, and areas of the Amazon and Alaska would also experience record average surface air temperatures.

The authors estimate that, in the moderate scenario, the average global surface temperatures in the period 2023-24 would be between 1.03 and 1.10 degrees above the reference average for the period 1951-1980.

Those same temperatures, in the strong El Niño scenario, would be between 1.06 and 1.20 degrees above said average, according to the study.

Fires, cyclones and heat waves

The authors warn that record average temperatures will likely test the current ability of regions to cope with the consequences of excess heat.

In addition, high surface air temperatures can significantly increase the likelihood of extreme weather events, such as forest fires, tropical cyclones and heat waves.

This risk is centered, above all, in oceanic and coastal areas, where the greater heat capacity of the ocean causes climatic conditions to persist for long periods of time.

The likelihood of record sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and Caribbean Sea “could cause marine heat waves throughout the year, with consequent negative ecological, economic and social consequences”write the authors.

Record surface air temperatures in the Amazon could worsen extreme weather events and increase the risk of wildfires. Region that has already suffered serious forest fires and droughts in September and October 2023, the study recalls.

Alaska’s warming could result in a number of negative reactions, such as melting glaciers and permafrost, coastal erosion, and other negative climate effects.