Russia longs to be seen as a power again and to dictate its “own rules” to the West

Russia wants to impose their rules of the game and be seen again as power, and for this it resorts to red lines difficult to accept by the West such as the veto of the entry of new members into NATO, the concentration of troops near Ukraine or the use of gas as a means of pressure.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “sometimes attacks the West for pleasure and Russia sometimes receives the same treatment, but this time their motivation is much more complex, “Alexander Baúnov, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told EFE.

The US and Europe are on alert for the deployment of between 70,000 and 94,000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine, which are ready, according to the West, to attack the neighboring country in early 2022.

There is no new Cold War state between Russia and the West, but in a way a behavior and rhetoric that are reminiscent of that time, argues the analyst.

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The next cold war?

The classic Cold War was based on the idea of ​​bipolarity, it was a competition between equals, between the former winners of World War II.

says Baunov.

“In the current situation it is a competition between the winners of the Cold War and those who lost it. Russia is in a very inferior position. But it wants to be treated as a great power, like the one it was then (…) ”, he added.

For Baúnov, Putin’s “objective is not to invade and engulf Ukraine”, but make it clear that we have come this far with the expansion of NATO towards Russia and guarantee the security of the country.

“He tries (to dictate the rules), but his ambitions are not the same as the Soviet global ones. He says: look, when the United States was the only superpower and the West the only global pole, you could afford everything, but those years have gone down in history and you have gotten too close ”to our borders, he says.

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“His words are similar to what happened in the Cold War, but, at least for now (…), ambitions are limited to a small part of the former Russian territory and a small sphere of influence from Russia, ”he said.

Because Putin himself has allowed Turkey, a member of NATO and a self-sufficient power, to enter the Caucasus, something that would never have been possible. during the 1990s. And you just have to look at China’s presence in Central Asia, he argues.

Attack or counterattack

The West often sees the Russian leader’s challenges as an attack, but for him they are “counterattacks, defensive moves”In the face of this relationship between unequals.

Deep down, behind the Kremlin chief’s challenge to the West there are historical reasons and motives that have to do with Putin’s legacy, he believes.

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In 2024, when he will be able to stand for election again thanks to the 2020 Constitutional reform, the Russian president will have been in power for a quarter of a century and he knows that he must “consolidate something.”

“He solved the Chechen problem, by force by the way, (…) then came Crimea (the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014) and now we have another unresolved conflict in the Donbas,” where Moscow has supported for seven years to pro-Russian separatists, he notes.

“It’s about that and how the Kremlin views the recent history of Russia,” adds Baúnov.

“Russia was eliminated as a great power in the world system in the early 1990s and to be reinstated in that capacity would mend the trauma, the wounds ”, she opines.

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Time runs and, therefore, Putin has put demands on the table that he had never made beforeRed lines that are very difficult to comply with by the US and Europe.

He wants to wrest from the West the promise that Ukraine will not join NATO and that it will not deploy weapons in neighboring territory.

Putin knows that his demands are impossible to accept, but in negotiations one always starts from a position of maximums.

The least bad option

“Is it better to risk and have a war in Europe that you cannot face or make some concessions, taking into account some of Russia’s concerns?” Asks Baúnov.

The main options are arm the Ukrainian Army and the threat of sanctions.

“Sanctions work, but it is something that Russia can live with. Has done it since 2014″ When Crimea was annexed, he says.

United States already prepares a package of sanctions in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, which includes the suspension of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will transport Russian gas directly to Germany.

Europe’s energy dependence on Russia has been used by the Kremlin in its favor when it wanted and, at times when gas reserves in the Old Continent are at minimum levels and the prices are very high, take advantage of this situation.

“It is logical (…), remember that there is another gas pipeline. He says: authorize it and you will have more gas and it will be cheaper, ”says Baúnov. (I)