War in Gaza: this is how the negotiations on ceasefire and release of hostages are going

U.S. and Middle Eastern mediators appeared optimistic in recent days that they were close to a deal for a two-month ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday rejected Hamas’s two main demands — that Israel withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and release thousands of Palestinian prisoners — indicating that a wide rift remains between the two sides.

The war began after Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel, in which fighters killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took about 250 more hostage. About half of the hostages were freed during a week-long ceasefire last November in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

Israel’s offensive has killed more than 26,700 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza, whose count does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. About 85% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have fled their homes and the UN said a quarter of the population is hungry.

The conflict has also generated repercussions throughout the region. Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have attacked Israeli and US targets in support of the Palestinians, triggering retaliation in a spiral of violence that could trigger a regional confrontation.

Below is a look at the position of each of the parties to end the conflict:

Netanyahu seeks “total victory”

The Israeli prime minister has repeatedly vowed to continue the war until Israel destroys Hamas’s military and governance capabilities and frees all hostages, two goals that are increasingly difficult to achieve and that many Israelis fear are mutually exclusive.

In a speech delivered Tuesday at a pre-military religious academy located in the occupied West Bank, Netanyahu stated that “we will not withdraw the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip and we will not free thousands of terrorists”.

That would seem to rule out any agreement with Hamas, but it could also be a stance aimed at strengthening Israel’s position in the indirect negotiations taking place.

Netanyahu is under increasing pressure from the hostages’ families and the general public to reach an agreement with Hamas for the hostages’ return. Many Israelis fear that time is running out.

At the same time, his governing coalition — dominated by hardline ultranationalists who oppose a deal — could crumble if he is perceived to be being too lenient toward Hamas.

Israeli military forces have only successfully rescued one hostage, and Hamas said several have been killed in airstrikes or during botched rescue operations. In December, Israeli forces mistakenly killed three hostages who had escaped and were waving a white flag.

Hamas wants an end to the war

Hamas has refused to release any more hostages until Israel ends its offensive and withdraws from Gaza. It seeks a broader agreement that includes a long-term truce and reconstruction.

The group’s main political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, said Tuesday that its priority is “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip. He commented that any agreement should also lead to reconstruction, the lifting of the Egyptian-Israeli blockade on the territory and the liberation of “all our heroic prisoners”.

Hamas is believed to be holding hostages in deep, heavily guarded tunnels, using them as human shields for its top leaders and as bargaining chips for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. Among them are high-level fighters involved in attacks that killed Israeli civilians.

If Hamas releases the hostages without ending the war, it would be exposed to an even larger Israeli attack once the ceasefire expires. Failure to secure a meaningful prisoner swap could come with strong criticism from Palestinians following unprecedented death and destruction in the small coastal enclave.

On the other hand, if Hamas achieves a long-term truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the release of thousands of prisoners, it would be seen as the victor of the war, at least by its supporters.

Mediators seek a middle ground

The United States, which has provided crucial military aid to the offensive, largely supports Israel’s war goals. He wants all the hostages released and guarantees that Hamas will not be able to carry out an attack like the one on October 7 again.

But President Joe Biden’s administration also has a strong interest in ending a war that has generated regional instability and divided Democratic voters during an election year.

Arab countries, including main mediators Egypt and Qatar, have insisted on a ceasefire since the early days of the war, fearing further instability.

The United States and Arab mediators appear to be seeking a middle ground in which the hostages are released in phases over a two-month period in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, more urgent humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza, and a withdrawal part of the Israeli forces.

A two-month respite could buy some time to negotiate a broader deal to address the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

American and Arab diplomats have talked about a possible grand deal in which Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel and join other Arab countries and the Western-recognized Palestinian Authority in helping to rebuild and govern Gaza, in exchange for a way credible for the creation of a Palestinian State alongside Israel.

But Netanyahu, whose government opposes a Palestinian state, and Hamas, which refuses to recognize Israel, have also ruled out that possibility.