FMLN and Arena, the keys to an opposition in danger of extinction in El Salvador

The historic parties Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN, left) and the Nationalist Republican Alliance (Arena, right) could, after the presidential and legislative elections of February 4, sink even further and their political influence “disappear” given the foreseeable victory of the ruling party Nayib Bukele.

These political formations, which governed El Salvador for three decades, became an opposition with no impact on the decisions of Congress after the almost unanimous rejection of voters.

The failure to keep promises, the acts of corruption attributed to their presidents, their lack of political will to resolve deep-rooted economic and social problems, and their lack of commitment to internal renewal explain their rapid decline and the danger of them disappearing as parties.

Below are some keys to explain the situation of this part of the opposition:

1. The overwhelming Bukele effect

The current president and candidate for immediate re-election, Nayib Bukele, expelled from the FMLN – formerly a guerrilla – in 2015, won the 2019 presidential elections, breaking with three decades of ARENA and FMLN governments.

These parties maintained dominant positions in the Legislative body for about 20 years, but Bukele’s victory broke this “bipartisanship”which also led to an almost absolute majority in the Legislative body in 2021.

The Nuevas Ideas political project, led by Xavier Zablah Bukele, cousin of President Bukele, took advantage of the discontent and rejection of the ARENA and FMLN militants to prevail in the 2021 municipal and legislative elections.

His victory meant becoming the main political force in the country – despite not having a clearly defined ideological tendency – achieving a majority in Congress with 56 deputies out of 84, and exceeding 60 with his allies, old right-wing parties.

2. Opposition with fewer spaces

It is uncertain what may happen after the February 4 elections with the FMLN and Arena, the hard political blow they suffered in 2019 not only led them to lose a considerable number of deputies, but also the credibility and trust of their followers.

Arena was in the Executive for 20 years (1989 and 2009), while the FMLN governed the country for 10 years (2009-2019).

The votes of these parties in Congress did not manage to influence or condition the decisions of the ruling party. To guarantee their existence, these parties need 50,000 votes, or a deputation or an alcaldía (city council).

3. Broken promises

Omar Serrano, vice chancellor of Social Projection at the Jesuit Central American University (UCA), said in statements to EFE that both parties did things that were not well regarded by the population and omitted what they expected.

“We went from unfulfilled promises by Arena to a change that did not come, that the FMLN offered, and that was excellently exploited by the current president when he left the FMLN and has known how to take advantage.”, he opined.

He noted that Bukele “His motto is to end those parties and it seems that he is achieving it.”

4. Without renewal or will

For Serrano Arena and the FMLN, if they obtain the necessary votes to continue existing, they will do so in “total political irrelevance as they are at the moment.”

He pointed out that in the current political panorama these opposition parties bear responsibility for the lack of creativity, renewal and for the failure to put the interests of the country before their private interests.

Although, after the political defeat of 2019 and 2021, Arena and the FMLN announced changes and an internal restructuring, this was not carried out and has been another point that has contributed to their decline.

5. Corruption, the coup de grace

The coup de grace for these political institutes were the allegations of corruption cases of former presidents and former officials from both sides.

The corruption scandals began with former president Francisco Flores (1999-2004), of Arena, accused of embezzling US$10 million donated by Taiwan for the execution of 4 projects for the victims of two earthquakes that affected the country in 2001.

Flores was sent to trial in 2015 for alleged embezzlement of funds, but died in 2016 before the process was set up.

Elías Antonio Saca (2004-2009), also from Arena, was sentenced in 2018 to 10 years in prison for diverting and laundering more than $300 million from the state budget during his administration. The former Ephemelenista presidents who succeeded Flores and Saca were also part of this network.

Mauricio Funes (2009-2014), who currently lives in Nicaragua, is prosecuted in El Salvador for allegedly appropriating and laundering more than $351 million from the state budget, funds that were managed in a scheme similar to that used by Saca.

Former president Salvador Sánchez Cerén (2014-2019), for his part, was accused of allegedly embezzling more than US$183.6 million in state funds.