What economic measures to expect if Donald Trump is elected US president?

donald trump had made of the economy a campaign argument in 2020. It will continue to be an important issue this year, as the inflation and high interest rates continue to be at the center of Americans’ concerns. Here are three issues that are likely to be among your financial priorities if you return to business. White House:

Tariffs and the trade war with China

“When companies arrive and sell their products in the United States, they should automatically pay, let’s say, a 10%”the former president declared on Fox Business in August.

tax revenue “they would be used to pay the debt”, he added, in an interview conducted by his former economic advisor, Larry Kudlow.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), tariffs on goods entering the United States currently average 3.4%, with disparities depending on the product and country of origin.

It is not clear, however, whether this “universal tariff of 10%” would replace or add to the existing one.

This “trade war” would be the first “key element” of Trump’s economic policy, explained Marcus Noland, vice president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), in an interview with AFP.

You are concerned that this “further weaken the international trade system” and “further damage the WTO.” And with consumers struggling to cope with inflation, tariff hikes could increase the price of imported goods.

China, in particular, is likely to remain in the former president’s crosshairs. “There are many unknowns,” but “Trump seems to have focused on the trade war with China“Steven Hamilton, a professor at George Washington University, told AFP.

Tax reduction

One of the main actions of Trump’s first term was to reduce taxes for many households and large businesses. But this reform expires in 2025.

“In my opinion, the economic priority, if elected, would be to consolidate this tax reform and build on it,” Richard Stern, director of the Heritage Foundation, a Republican think tank, told AFP.

“The centerpieces of Trump’s economic agenda will be trade wars and tax cuts,” summarizes Ben Ritz, director of the Center for Funding America’s Future, an entity that promotes fiscal responsibility.

Trump”will say this puts money in Americans’ pockets”, he assures. “But in reality, it will only increase our debt, increase the cost of borrowing, raise costs for consumers and probably isolate us internationally from our allies,” warns Ritz.

Green industries in danger

Electric vehicles and solar panels risk losing their shine with Trump as president.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed in the summer of 2022, will allocate $370 billion to clean energy. Is “probably the greatest initiative of (Joe)Biden”says Hamilton.

Trump is determined to reduce it and “maximize the production of fossil fuels”, Republican advisers told the Financial Times in November. “This will strangle a burgeoning green technology industry, which the IRA was designed to stimulate,” laments Ben Ritz.

On the conservative side, however, the decision seems justified: “Even if your motivation is to try to fight climate change, the right thing to do is to get rid of the IRA”says Stern of the Heritage Foundation.

For him, this plan “will waste hundreds of billions of dollars” of public and private money to support “technologies that we already know will not solve the problem.”