The former American president donald trump (2017-2021) delivered a coup this Monday to the Republican primaries after sweeping more than 50% of the votes in the Iowa caucuses, a historic victory with which he wants to get away from his rivals as soon as possible and go for the democrat Joe Biden.
Trump won in Iowa 51%30 percentage points above his rivals: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with a 21.2%, and the former governor of South Carolina and former ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, with a 19.1%.
What looked like it was going to be a battle for second place between DeSantis and Haley turned into a fight for survival.
It was the largest victory in history in the Iowa caucuses, which were the starting shot of the Republican primaries for the White House and whose second stop is New Hampshire, where the candidates already have events planned this Tuesday.
Next stop: New Hampshire
The polls for the January 23 primary in New Hampshire have Trump ahead, but with Haley close, thanks in part to the support received from the state’s popular governor, Chris Sununu.
“New Hampshire and Iowa rarely agree. Haley has a chance in New Hampshire. But even if he wins there, he would need to win a second state for this to be a race.”Professor Michael Cornfield, from George Washington University, told Efe.
Both Iowa and New Hampshire have a limited weight in the election of the Republican candidate for the White House, but they have great symbolic power as they are the first states in the primary process: they are the ones who decide which candidate enjoys the coveted ‘momentum’ to move forward and who should leave.
DeSantis was for some months the favorite to be the alternative to Trump; But in recent weeks, Haley has gained the support of major donors and some now see her as the best option to dethrone the former president.
Therefore, last night’s results put a lot of pressure on Haley to win in New Hampshire and achieve some “momentum”, Political Science expert from the University of Michigan Aaron Hall told EFE.
In fact, Haley’s strategy is to achieve that momentum between New Hampshire and South Carolina, the third state on the calendar and where she was governor between 2011 and 2017.
In any case, neither Haley nor DeSantis have the chance to win in a head-to-head against Trump and their strategy, for now, is to present themselves as “alternative” to Trump in case something unexpected happens from a legal or health perspective, Hall explained.
Trump is in good health, but he is 77 years old. And, on the other hand, he is immersed in four criminal cases and charged with 91 charges, among other things for inciting the assault on the Capitol in 2021, which could lead to him being sentenced to prison.
For now, however, those criminal charges are “Helping” Trump to win the primaries, according to Cornfield. “The accusations validate his feeling of grievance and divert media attention from the nomination race”he explained.
Divide and conquer
The reality, however, is that both Haley and DeSantis are dividing the vote of those who do not want Trump to win and, in this way, are ensuring his victory in the primaries, professor Timothy Hagle, from the University of Iowa.
It already happened in 2016, when Trump was competing for the Republican presidential nomination with almost a dozen rivals, including former Florida governor Jeb Bush, son and brother of presidents with the same last name; but since there was no strong voice against Trump, he ended up winning.
The Republican Party, however, has changed since Trump emerged as a candidate and its base has become radicalized.
According to an exit poll published last night by CNN, the 68% of Iowa caucus participants believe that Biden did not get to the White House legitimately.
He 69%Furthermore, he considers that Trump is qualified to be president, even if he is convicted in one of the criminal cases against him.
A race that could end in March
On the horizon, after New Hampshire, South Carolina and a few more stops, is what is known as ‘super tuesday’ March 5, a decisive date marked in red on the calendar with 15 states called to the polls, including the two largest in the country: California and Texas.
Trump needs to reach 1,215 delegates to be declared a candidate at the Republican National Convention in July in Wisconsin. In Iowa he has only added 20, but on ‘Super Tuesday’ he could have that number to touch.
“The race could end in March“said Hall, when there would still be more than half of the states left to vote and a three-month calendar of primaries.
For Cornfield, this dominance of Trump is reminiscent of what presidents have when they face opposition in primaries to run for a second term.
“Trump acts as if he were the current president. He refuses to debate. And right now many Republicans seem to agree with his self-assessment.”he concluded.
Source: Gestion
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