What awaits Taiwan after the election of a new president

After his victory in the presidential elections of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te’s path will not be easy and he will have to face military and economic pressure from China, which considers him a promoter of independence.

military pressure

During the election campaign, China warned Taiwanese to take the “right decision”calling Lai Ching-te, until now vice president, a “serious danger” that can be undertaken “the disastrous way” of the independence.

Lai won with 40% of the votes, with her running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, who will serve as vice president and who was previously Taiwan’s representative to the United States.

Alexander Huang, a military expert at Tamkang University in Taipei, does not believe there will be an immediate Chinese military reaction, but that “Beijing will increase pressure on Taiwan in other waysyes.”

Taiwan already observes the presence of Chinese planes and warships in the strait almost daily, which raises fears of an incident, even more so because there are no high-level communications between Beijing and Taipei.

Intimidation tactics, such as sending Chinese balloons, will continue to “increase pressure,” predicts political scientist Wen-ti Sung.

It is also likely that the expected visit on Sunday and Monday of an informal US delegation to “convey the congratulations of the American people to Taiwan,” irritate Beijing.

In August 2022, a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the United States House of Representatives, sparked outrage in China, which launched large-scale military maneuvers in response.

Economic sanctions

Taiwan is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors, an essential part for the manufacture of high-tech products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a world leader in semiconductors, supplies almost 50% of the world’s production of microchips smaller than 10 nanometers.

Therefore, the new president will have to find a balance between geopolitical tensions and an environment conducive to exports.

Lai promised on Saturday to give “strong support to the semiconductor industry.”

According to Wen-ti Sung, China could increase its economic pressure as it did in 2022, after Pelosi’s visit, then prohibiting the import of some fruits and fish from Taiwan.

No parliamentary majority

Despite Lai’s victory, his party, the Democratic Progressive Party (PDP) lost its majority in parliament.

Of a total of 113 seats, the PDP only has 51, compared to 52 for the Kuomintang (KMT), which favors rapprochement with Beijing, eight for the Taiwanese People’s Party (TPP) and two in the hands of independents.

In this sense, the approval of laws related to relations with China will be complex, warns Sarah Liu, a researcher at the University of Edinburgh.

Maintain the status quo

With Lai’s victory, the PDP obtained an unprecedented third term at the head of the country, confirming the will of the majority of Taiwanese to maintain a distance from China.

“What we are seeing is that the Taiwanese increasingly have a different identity from that of mainland China” and at the same time “Beijing is becoming more and more powerful“says Ivy Kwek, from the International Crisis Group think tank.

That’s why the United States is “increasingly concerned about China’s intentions towards Taiwan.”