Two antagonistic models go to the polls in Chile led by Kast and Boric

Welfare state, feminism and environmentalism or anti-immigration ditches, traditional family and neoliberalism. They are the two antagonistic models that will compete in Chile this Sunday at the hands of former left-wing student leader Gabriel Boric and right-wing lawyer José Antonio Kast.

The one that was for decades the most stable country in Latin America will decide whether to look to one side or the other, a dilemma that ends with 30 years of relative calm and political alternation between the two center blocks that shared power after the end of the military dictatorship in 1990.

“With two candidates so far apart on the political spectrum, this election will be, along with the plebiscite for a new Constitution of October 2020, the most important in the recent history of Chile,” said Kenneth Bunker, director of the Tresquintos pollster.

Cambios deep o the status quo

Boric, 35, leader of the Broad Front, represents the part of Chilean society that wants “profound changes” and that participated in the massive protests for equality in 2019, said María Cristina Escudero, a political scientist at the University of Chile.

“He wants better pensions, education, health and puts a lot of emphasis on environmentalism or feminism,” he said.

The first time that the majority of Chileans knew about him was during the student mobilizations of 2011 in favor of a fairer educational system and since then he has managed to consolidate himself as a “strong leader” of the left, he added.

Kast’s case is very different: a fervent Catholic and father of nine children, the rightist is part of a family clan that had political ties to the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), a regime with which he has been complacent in various occasions.

“He is more in favor of maintaining the status quo and putting conservative values ​​and the family at the center,” said Valentina Rosas, a political scientist at the Catholic University.

It is against equal marriage, abortion in any circumstance and proposes digging a ditch on the border to prevent the passage of migrants, something “very conservative that reminds Donald Trump,” he explained.

According to the latest polls, Boric is the favorite to replace the conservative Sebastián Piñera in March 2022, with between 5 and 14 points of advantage over his contender, but experts warn that the election is still very open and will be defined vote by vote .

Economy and the role of the State

In economic terms, their main difference has to do with the role of the State, said Eolo Díaz-Tendero, director of the Observatory of Transparency of the State University of O’Higgins (UOH).

“Boric has a view that is linked to that of a European social democracy, which seeks that the State covers certain rights, while Kast is in favor of preserving the current model, very marked by the minimal role of the public,” he argued.

The Chilean system, which by inheritance from the Pinochet dictatorship is markedly neoliberal and with privatized basic services, led Chile to be the country with the highest income per capita in South America, although it also left it as the most unequal, according to the database. Independent World Inequality Database (WID).

The director of the Business School of the Universidad Mayor, Francisco Castañeda, pointed out that Kast’s proposals are “more market-friendly” because they propose tax cuts that are similar to those of Ireland.

“Boric, on the other hand, proposes to increase collection by 8% of GDP in eight years and considers creating a development bank or new state companies, which generates great mistrust among the private sector,” he said.

In any case, added the academic, “both have been moderating their speech to attract the center voter on issues such as taxation or pensions.”

The constituent path

Another of the key points will be the evolution of the constituent process, which started last July as a political way to ease the social crisis of 2019.

“While Boric has a much more cooperative spirit, Kast is skeptical of constitutional change and even voted against it,” said Javier Sajuria, a Chilean political scientist at Queen Mary University of London, UK.

For the academic, the new government will have a “fundamental” role as it will be in charge of administrative or budgetary aspects, and could even condition the result of the 2022 exit plebiscite, in which Chileans will have to vote if they finally approve or they reject the text.

“With the challenge of inaugurating a new Constitution ahead, the spirit of the next president is going to be crucial for the political scaffolding of the next decades,” Bunker concluded.