COP28 enters fully into the discussion on the future of fossil fuels

The future of fuels fossils dominated the discussions of the COP28 in Dubai, where OPEC asked its members to oppose any critical mention of these energy sources in the final declaration of the conference.

COP28, in the words of the president of the event, the Emirati Sultan al Jaber, could be “the one that changes the rules of the game”, and the powerful oil cartel, with 13 members and a dozen allies, seemed to understand this and considered it. as a risk.

“Undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels can reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences,” warned the general secretary of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)Haitham Al Ghais, in a letter sent to the member countries.

”The draft decision still contains options to phase out fossil fuels,” Al Ghais stressed in his message, sent on Wednesday. COP28 evaluates the balance of the fight against climate change since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, which set the objective of limiting global warming to 2 ºC, and as far as possible to 1.5 ºC, with respect to the levels of the pre-industrial era.

Climatologists agree that the world must abandon fossil fuels as soon as possible if it intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming. A new draft COP28 final declaration, 27 pages long, was published at midday, with various options on what to do with oil, gas and coal. “Abandon” or “reduce” The use of these energy sources is the basic dilemma of the final declaration, which the ministers should close next Tuesday.

There is a third controversial option on the table, which is not to mention those at all. fuels. ”This latest draft shows that we have never been closer to moving away from fossil fuels. But what that transition will look like will be a tough battle in the coming days.”explained Romain Ioulalen, from Oil Change International. Fossil fuels played a key role in the development of rich countries and also in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere that is accelerating global warming.

Currently, many developing countries, with significant hydrocarbon reserves, also view their elimination with concern. ”Although the member countries” and their associates “they take climate change seriously (…), it would be unacceptable for politically motivated campaigns to endanger the prosperity and future of our people,” the OPEC letter continues.

Finish the homework

“I beg you to finish the task,” Al Jaber asked on Friday to the almost 200 countries present in Dubai. Decisions are made by consensus in the UN conferences of parties (COP).

“All eyes are on the presidency,” warned Andreas Sieber, from the NGO 350.org.

Jaber distributed the task between now and Tuesday into four working groups, co-chaired by two country ministers, who must receive suggestions from the participants.

China and the US come into play

“You always have to pay attention to what the main protagonists are discussing,” Jennifer Allan, an expert on climate negotiations at the Earth Negotiations Bulletin, explained to the press. In Dubai, relations between the US and China They mark a good part of the negotiating environment. The European Union has an ambitious stance on most issues.

China and USA They met last month and agreed that “the deployment of renewable energies must be sufficiently accelerated (…) to accelerate the substitution of electricity production from coal, oil and gas.”

That is, the COP28 declaration could link the fate of fossil fuels to the increase in energy production from renewables. This would involve tripling the installed capacity of renewables between now and 2030 and doubling energy efficiency.

”We have to be fair. We have to be equitable. “We have to be orderly and responsible in the energy transition,” declared Al Jaber.

One of the objectives of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions neutrality by 2050.

(Source: AFP)