The Brazilian countryside expects agricultural GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2024, compared to the 14.5% expected for this year, due to the consequences of the climate phenomenon The boy, The main association of the sector reported this Wednesday.
The Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) also foresees that the gross value of production will fall slightly, from 1.24 trillion reais this year (about US$250,000 million) to 1.21 trillion next year.
Likewise, the profit margin for the current harvest will decrease, according to projections, for almost all the main products of the Brazilian countryside, with reductions of 14% for soybeans, 12% for coffee and 20% for corn.
Regarding production itself, the CNA believes that the current harvest will close below the Government’s expectations due to the effects of El Niño, which causes excess rain in the south of Brazil and drought in the north.
“The climatic events in December and January will be fundamental to know if we are going to have a larger soybean harvest than this year, which is unlikely, or what the intensity of that fall is,” Bruno Lucchi, technical director of the CNA, explained at a press conference.
Lucchi stated that the increase in temperatures due to El Niño caused some of the seeds that had been planted “they will cook” in the ground without being able to germinate, forcing farmers to plant again.
Added to the lower production is an international scenario characterized by stagnant demand for agricultural products and still high prices for agricultural products. fertilizerswhich will affect profits.
In this context, the CNA demanded that the president’s government Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to inject 3,000 million reais into Rural Insurance in 2024, compared to 1,000 million this year, to mitigate potential losses for farmers.
On the other hand, the sector association predicts that Brazilian agricultural exports will reach US$164 billion in 2023, 3% more than in 2022, thanks to increased purchases from China and a poor soybean harvest in Argentina.
Source: Gestion
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