Key question at COP28: reduce or eliminate fossil fuels?

After several days in which they touched on different aspects of the heatingnegotiators dedicated themselves on Tuesday to the difficult task of confronting the main cause of the planet’s overheating: fossil fuels.

As scientists, activists and United Nations officials spelled out the need to phase out coal, oil and natural gas consumption, the conference in the United Arab Emirates kicked off the “energy transition day” with a session in which executives from two oil companies spoke.

Negotiators produced a new draft of what is expected to be the main document of the UN, the so-called World Balance, but there were so many possibilities exposed in its 24 pages that it was difficult to anticipate what will be agreed upon at the end of the session next week. Everything that is approved must be by consensus, that is, by quasi-unanimity.

“The central issue in this COPthe Global Balance, is to reach a conclusion on the phasing out of fossil fuels”said climatologist Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics. “And if we don’t, I doubt we’ll see an improvement in temperature.”

Discussions on the global balance make climate discussions in Dubai “a moment of reflection”, said World Resources Institute international climate action director David Waskow. “It sheds light on whether we are doing enough to limit emissions, adapt and prepare for climate change, and increase funding from developed to developing countries.”

The options in the draft document range from lax “gradual reduction of the unbridled power of coal” to the simple but dramatic “gradual, methodical and fair elimination of fossil fuels.”

Scientists monitoring climate measures said it is crucial to monitor the wording to ensure there are no loopholes.

“It is necessary to gradually eliminate fossil fuels without a back exit,” said Niklas Hohne of the New Climate Institute. “There are a lot of back-tracks proposed at this conference… mainly to prolong the life of fossil fuels, and one of them is to talk about the ‘unbridled power’ of fossil fuels.”

This phrase means allowing the consumption of fossil fuels yes Their emissions can be captured and stored, a technology that is much talked about but has not been proven to be truly effective, according to Hohne and other scientists.

Hohne and Hare’s organizations on Tuesday unveiled an updated version of the Climate Action Tracker, a website that examines nations’ pledges, policies and actions and attempts to estimate temperature increases. He found that, according to promises, the world is moving in the wrong direction.

A year ago, the world’s promises, if fulfilled, would cause warming of 2.4°C (4.3 Fahrenheit) relative to the pre-industrial era, but today it is 2.5°C (4.5 F). That’s because countries with low pledges — notably Indonesia and Iran — have increased their emissions to such a degree that the world is headed toward further warming, according to the report’s lead author, Claire Stockwell of Climate Analytics.