After 20 years of centre-left Peronist governments, Argentina could begin a new political cycle if the far-right candidate Javier Mileian economist with no political experience and with proposals that generate fear in broad sectors of society, wins next Sunday’s runoff.
Milei, who remembers other disruptive leaders such as donald trump in the United States and Jair Bolsonaro In Brazil, he will face the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
The far-right Milei, from Freedom Advances, brings together the votes of voters who want drastic political and economic change and are fed up with inflation of 142% year-on-year, insecurity and corruption. With a caustic tongue and angry temperament, he has not exercised public management.
Massa, a Peronist with a moderate profile who represents Unión por la Patria, is a long-time leader who has held different public positions and was a candidate for president in 2015.
Looking ahead to the runoff, several polls show a scenario of technical tie, with a slight advantage for one candidate or the other, although within the margin of error.
Below, a look at the scenario in which Argentina’s presidential elections will take place on Sunday.
Who is Javier Milei?
The ultra-liberal economist, 53, became popular as a guest on political television programs in which he denigrated traditional politicians, considering them a “breed” of privileged. Two years ago he founded his party, La Libertad Avanza, with which he won a congressional seat in the midterm elections.
This is his only background in the public sector, since he developed his career in large companies. In his youth he was also a goalkeeper for a soccer club.
Milei proposes a drastic cut in public spending, dollarizing the economy—although he has given few details about how he will implement it—and closing the Central Bank, considering it responsible for the unchecked monetary issue.
He also announced that he will call a popular plebiscite to repeal the law that legalized abortion and deregulate the use of weapons. He has also questioned the policy of human rights that has promoted trials against the repressors of the last military dictatorship (1976-1983).
Who is Sergio Massa?
With a political militancy that began at a very young age, Massa He has aspired to be president of the country for many years, although he was a candidate for the only time in 2015.
He grew up in a middle-class home in a suburb of Buenos Aires, became a lawyer, soon reached the upper echelons of politics, and has remained there for more than two decades.
He points out that he had to leave his relatively comfortable position as leader of the Chamber of Deputies to take on the thankless task of Economy Minister at a time when inflation was accelerating without restraint.
De Massa highlights his pragmatism, his well-oiled ties with the business community and with leaders of the United States. Observers see him as a candidate who changes positions easily.
What factors wore down the ruling Peronism?
The social assistance model, which was one of the pillars of the center-left Peronist governments—Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015)—reached a limit in the current administration of Alberto Fernández. .
The government’s inability to tame inflation that has accumulated 120% since the beginning of the year, bringing poverty to 40.1% of the population, hit its electoral base hard. President Fernández gave up seeking re-election, hit by opinion polls.
In this context, the State multiplied public spending on subsidies and social aid, widening the fiscal hole, encouraging monetary issuance and, therefore, accelerating the rise in prices.
In one year as Minister of Economy, Massa lost by several margins against inflation, but his supporters maintain that without his efforts before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance the debt and obtain oxygen for the international reserves, the government would not have been sustained.
Since its creation in the mid-1940s, center-right and center-left populist currents with different visions of politics have coexisted in the party founded by three-time president Juan Domingo Perón (1946-1952, 1952-1955 and 1973-1974). economic, from nationalism to liberalism.
Main post-election challenge: The economy
Argentina reported monthly inflation of 8.3% in October, while the year-on-year inflation rate reached 142.7%, aggravated by restrictions in the exchange marketa fall in reserves and a deep fiscal deficit.
Added to this is the heavy debt burden of more than US$44 billion with the IMF, which is being refinanced in several stages, and that maintained with private creditors.
How is the winner defined?
The candidate with the most votes on Sunday wins the runoff and is authorized to govern for four years.
Since the reform of the Constitution in 1994, which established the second round in the electoral system, the only precedent of a runoff was in the 2015 general elections.
The official results are scheduled to be released on Sunday starting at 0000 GMT.
Source: AP
Source: Gestion
Ricardo is a renowned author and journalist, known for his exceptional writing on top-news stories. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he is known for his ability to deliver breaking news and insightful analysis on the most pressing issues of the day.
