UN: CO2 emissions will only fall by 2% in 2030 at the current rate

Countries’ current climate commitments will only lead to a 2% reduction in emissions. Emissions of greenhouse gases in 2030 compared to 2019, instead of the 43% recommended by climatologists, a report from the UN.

Two weeks before COP28, the report shows that the international community is moving ahead “small steps to avoid the climate crisis”, and that must “take giant steps in the COP28″said Simon Stiell, head of the UN climate change body.

The 28th UN climate change conference, which will be held from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai, “It has to be a decisive turn”Stiell asked.

The report is the annual synthesis of the latest emissions reduction commitments, which are known as “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC).

These voluntary contributions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were assumed by the 195 signatories of the Paris Agreement of 2015.

COP28 in Dubai must establish the first official evaluation and the first corrections.

Taking into account the 20 new revised NDCs submitted until the end of September, “The report shows, in line with the findings of last year’s analysis, that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030 compared to 2019 levels, they are not yet showing the rapid downward trend that science believes is necessary in this decade ”.

“The report clearly shows that every fraction of a degree counts, but that we are out of bounds”added the senior UN official.

New national commitments

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets the goal of limiting the global warming “well below 2°C with respect to pre-industrial levels”when humanity began to exploit fossil fuels responsible for greenhouse gas emissions on a large scale, and if possible at 1.5 °C.

However, to contain the planet’s global warming by 50% and limit it to +1.5°C, global emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, according to the latest IPCC report, experts commissioned by the UN.

The balance of the Paris Agreement, expected at COP28, is a prerequisite for the mandatory review of these NDCs before 2025.

At the 2021 COP26 in Glasgow, signatories to the agreement committed to reviewing the NDCs annually, rather than every five years, but only a minority have done so since.

Among the countries that have managed to present an update of their emissions reduction objectives are Mexico or Brazil (last week), as well as the European UnionEgypt or Türkiye.

IPCC climatologists calculated that the world could reach global warming of +1.5 ºC in twelve years, the equivalent of the emission of 500 gigatonnes (Gt) equivalent of CO2.

According to a recent reassessment by scientists, this carbon budget has been reduced by half, that is, 250 Gt of CO2e, which represents approximately six years.

Source: AFP