Republican struggle in the US is reduced; four candidates left against Trump

After the recent abandonment of the Republican presidential race of former Vice President Mike Pence and the latest withdrawal, that of Senator Tim Scott, five figures aspire to become the conservative candidate for the 2024 US presidential elections, a list that is reduced but is still headed by donald trump (2017-2021).

And, according to all the surveys published every week, the former president continues to be the favorite of Republican Party voters.

In the one broadcast by CBS News last week, Trump appeared as the clear favorite with the 61% of voting intentions, followed by Ron DeSantis (18%)Nikki Haley (9%)Vivek Ramaswamy (5%) and Chris Christie (2%), figures very similar to another survey published by CNN on the same dates. In both Scott still appeared with the 3%-4%.

The senator from South Carolina, 58, was the only African-American among the candidates and his surprise withdrawal occurred on Sunday night, two weeks after former Vice President (in the Trump Administration) Mike Pence also left. his fight.

“The voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been very clear in telling me: ‘Not now, Tim’”stated Scott, who never exceeded the 4% of voting intention in the polls of recent months.

Will his abandonment, or those who may come in the coming weeks, modify anything in the presidential race? In the opinion of Aaron Kall, a political science expert at the University of Michigan, Scott’s departure could slightly benefit Haley. “because they are both from the state of South Carolina and share followers.”

“But Trump’s lead is so big, both nationally and in the first states that hold primaries, that I don’t think he’s going to change the overall trajectory.”“, he tells EFE.

In the opinion of Ohio University Behavioral Sciences Professor Paul A. Beck, “Given the leadership that Trump now enjoys, it is very unlikely that he could be denied the presidential nomination.” For next March, he tells EFE, “We will already know that Trump will be the Republican candidate.”

All of this is the result of the fact that, according to EFE, Mark Caleb Smith, director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University, has exercised “a dramatic influence” about the Republican Party, which “has made it very difficult for another challenger to step forward and challenge him directly.”

“He has redefined what conservative means, what it means to be a Republican and what USA means to the people, points out.

Still, unlike 2020, when Trump started the primaries almost alone, with candidates who barely had support, the four know that they have to be there because this is not going to be just any campaign year.

And parallel to the presidential race, the former president will have to face four criminal trials: for illegal payments to actress Stormy Daniels; for mishandling classified documents; for attempting to manipulate the results of the 2020 elections in Georgia and for his alleged interference in reversing the 2020 election result, a case that relates him to the assault on the Capitol.

Although at the moment the processes do not seem to influence it negatively, 2024 will be a year of great uncertainty so, presumably, the candidates will hold out at least until the first caucus, which will be held in Iowa on January 15.

“Everyone wants to be in the right place at the right time in case something unexpected happens, because of Trump’s legal problems or because he is 77 years old. “They want to be the most viable and credible alternative if something happens,” Kall points out.

Who could this alternative figure be? While expectations for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis started out high at the start of his campaign, over the months he has deflated.

Meanwhile, the popularity of Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former United States ambassador to the United Nations, is increasing and, aware of this, she will make a strong push ahead of the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries: plans to invest 10 million in advertising in the two states, the first to hold internal elections.

All this to position himself for the primaries in South Carolina, his home state and the third on the nomination calendar.

“I think the number one person right now who is going to challenge Trump will be Haley.”says Smith.

“She is a capable candidate. She has a significant amount of experience and I believe she is a credible opponent who can attract enough support to defeat him. Although she can’t now, if things change she will see.”he points out.