Tensions to save the objective of limiting climate change, one month before COP28

Confronted with the growing effects of global warming Already a concatenation of geopolitical crises, countries work to resolve their differences regarding the fossil fuels and North-South solidarity one month before COP28 in Dubai.

Four weeks before the 28th edition of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (November 30 to December 12), which should officially declare that the objectives of the Paris Agreement have not yet been met, the ministers of some fifty countries will meet on Monday and Tuesday in the United Arab Emirates, for a “pre-COP” behind closed doors.

Exiting fossil fuels, financing the energy transition, sharing responsibilities between developed countries, historical polluters and emerging countries that are catching up, and organizing solidarity with the most vulnerable countries are some of the pending issues of the meeting.

In parallel, humanity must reduce its current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% by 2030, in the hope of meeting the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting warming to 1.5°C from the beginning of the industrial era.

But with the war between Israel and Hamas“it is difficult to know where we will be in a month in the Middle East”, Alden Meyer, an expert at the E3G center, told AFP. Because this conflict risks “make the already complicated multilateral cooperation more difficult due to Ukraine and Russia, the tensions between China and USA and the debt crisis, among others.”

Eight years after Paris, 2023 is close to +1.5°C for the first time in an entire year and for six months, the oceans have been breaking heat records. On the continents, heat waves, fires, floods and hurricanes hit populations.

In this context, COP28 concentrates both expectations and attacks, since it will be chaired by the oil and gas power of the United Arab Emirates.

More than 80,000 people and 5,000 journalists are expected, an unprecedented number, and the participants in the immense economic fair outside the negotiations join the scientists, NGOs and delegates of the 198 signatories of the United Nations convention. for the fight against climate change.

The Emirati presidency hopes to attract a record number of heads of state on December 1 and 2. The rare presence of Chinese President Xi Jinping or the unprecedented presence of Pope Francis is mentioned.

+2.8°C

Even if global emissions, mainly from coal, oil and gas, have not started to decline, some progress has been made since the Paris COP.

At that time, the world was heading towards a warmer climate, which was around 2.9 and 3.1 degrees in 2100. At the rate of current emissions, warming is now heading towards +2.8°C according to the Group Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), or even +2.4°C if States respect their current commitments.

However, it is necessary to reaffirm them to avoid certain tipping points, such as the melting of the poles, the weakening of forests or the thawing of permafrost, colossal additional reserves of GHG.

“COP28 offers the opportunity to accelerate the transition by building the energy system of the future, while rapidly decarbonizing the current energy system, in order to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach,” says Sultan Al Jaber, president of COP28, in his latest message to negotiators.

But Adnoc, the oil and gas company that he presides, is investing $150 billion between now and the next five years to expand hydrocarbon production capacity.

“Just transition”

The debate on the exit from fossil fuels, which was carefully avoided at COP27, is firmly present in this edition’s work on the results of the Paris agreement.

But while island countries call for a moratorium and for the EU to accelerate their exit, many countries call for a ““just transition” that gives them more time so as not to compromise their development. And the producing countries promote the idea of “clean fossil fuels”, based on capture technologies and controversial carbon credits.

At the same time, the rise of renewable energy is rare good news, as an agreement to triple its capacity by 2030 appears to be within reach. Even realistic, according to the International Energy Agency, mainly thanks to significant American investments (from the IRA, (Inflation Reduction Act), Chinese and European (Green Deal).

But any final agreement will depend on progress on finances and solidarity with developing countries, to which rich countries are bound by the UN climate convention. The blocking of negotiations on the creation of a fund “loss and damage”, main success of COP27 and red line for developing countries, does not bode well.

In case of blockages, “The risk is that we will be sold many annexed declarations and coalitions that are no substitute for an ambitious agreement on the results of the Paris agreement, including fossils, loss and damage,” warns Lola Vallejo, expert at the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).

Source: AFP