IEA: Global demand for oil, gas and coal will peak in 2030

The global demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2030 as sales of electric cars rise and the Chinese economy grows more slowly and shifts toward cleaner energy, the agency said. International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA report, which advises industrialized countries, contrasts with the opinion of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which considers that oil demand will increase much after 2030 and calls for multi-billion dollar investments in the sector.

In its annual World Energy Outlook report, published on Tuesday, the IEA states that its scenario based on countries’ current policies sees peaks in demand for oil, natural gas and coal in this decade, the first time this occurs.

“The transition to clean energy is happening around the world and is unstoppable. “It is not a question of ‘if’, but of ‘when’, and the sooner the better for everyone,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

“Countries, companies and investors must support clean energy transitions instead of hindering them.”

A graph from the IEA report shows that global demand for all three fossil fuels will peak in 2030. While coal use enters a steep decline after 2030, oil and gas use remains close to its peak. maximum level during the next two decades.

Still, the IEA also said that, as things stand, demand for fossil fuels will remain too high to keep within reach the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“This could not only worsen the climate impact after a year of record heat, but also undermine the security of the energy system, which was built for a colder world with fewer extreme weather events,” the agency said in a statement.

China’s role changes

By 2030, the IEA expects there to be almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide and cited policies supporting clean energy in key markets as a drag on future fossil fuel demand.

For example, the IEA now projects that 50% of new car registrations in the United States will be electric in 2030, up from 12% of its forecast two years ago, largely as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act. US.

The IEA also believes that China’s role as a key source of energy demand growth is changing.

While China accounted for almost two-thirds of the growth in global oil consumption over the past decade, the momentum of its economic growth is slowing and the country is a “clean energy power”according to the report, which adds that more than half of global sales of electric vehicles in 2022 were produced in China.

The IEA noted that the key to an orderly transition is to increase investment in all aspects of a clean energy system, rather than in fossil fuels.

“The end of the fossil fuel growth era does not mean the end of fossil fuel investment, but it undermines the justification for any increase in spending”says the IEA report.

An OPEC report earlier this month said calls to halt investment in new oil projects were “wrong” and “could lead to energy and economic chaos.”

Source: Reuters