Elections in Argentina: key conclusions after the first electoral round

Argentina held presidential elections on Sunday in which Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa achieved a surprising first place despite an enormous economic crisis and will face Javier Milei in a runoff, a newcomer to politics who was the favorite before the elections. .

Massa and Milei will face each other in the second round on November 19 and whoever wins will assume the presidency on December 10, replacing the outgoing center-left Peronist president Alberto Fernández. The official candidate obtained 36.7% of the votes compared to Milei, who captured 30%.

Conservative Patricia Bullrich, popular among the establishment and business circles, obtained nearly 24% of the votes and was left out of the runoff.

Below are the highlights of the first electoral round:

Winners and losers

The Government of Unión por la Patria, which faces a serious crisis with inflation close to 140% annually, negative central bank reserves and 40% of the population in poverty, was the surprise big winner of the night.

Milei’s followers were discouraged because he performed worse than many expected, although he obtained almost 8 million votes, more than he had achieved in the August primaries and a striking result for a candidate who entered politics in 2021. Now he is still in the race for a second round with his party La Libertad Avanza.

Bullrich, the candidate of the main conservative bloc, was the big loser of the election. The Together for Change coalition was the favorite to win the presidency before the primaries, but its vote was diluted by fights within the alliance and the abrupt rise of Milei.

The new president and vice president of the country will govern for four years, until the end of 2027.

Two in the race

Milei, a 53-year-old ultra-liberal economist, often wears leather jackets and has drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro for his abrasive style.

The libertarian leader, who until two years was just a histrionic economics columnist on television, has promised that, if he takes office, he will carry out a political and economic restructuring hitherto unprecedented in the history of Argentina, which includes the dollarization of its economy, the elimination of the central bank and a drastic reduction in the role of the State.

Massa, the 51-year-old economy minister, is considered a pragmatist within the Peronist movement, which has helped him capture more moderate votes.

Massa’s advance illustrates a strong realignment within Argentina’s most influential political party since the middle of the last century, with powerful center-left Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner moving from center stage after nearly two decades of preeminence.

Head to head fight

Massa enters the second round with the momentum of victory, but there is still a lot at stake. Milei could attract a large part of Bullrich’s 6.3 million conservative voters, more in line with his liberal thinking than with the ruling Peronism, although his outbursts and excesses could work against him.

The votes of candidate Juan Schiaretti, a Peronist who competed separately and obtained a higher percentage than expected – almost 7% – could also play a determining role in a second round.

There is likely to be a heated campaign over the next month as the two candidates present opposing economic plans. Massa is committed to protecting the country’s social safety net, while Milei wants to turn the “chainsaw” on a system that has left the nation in its worst economic crisis in decades.

Unreliable surveys

Once again, the country’s pollsters and experts were surprised by the result. Almost all pre-election polls showed Milei ahead of Massa, although they were right about Bullrich’s poor performance.

Pollsters had also not detected Milei’s rise in the August primaries, when he obtained a surprising first place, which adds to a significant error in the forecasts in the 2019 elections.

What is in game?

Argentina’s electoral race comes at a time of great uncertainty for the South American country, which is facing its worst economic crisis in two decades. Milei wants to dollarize the economy and reduce the size of the State. Massa would keep the peso and seeks to boost the labor market and growth.

Any incoming government will have to revive an economy in crisis, in addition to facing the US$44 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund, although greater foreign exchange earnings from agricultural, energy and mining exports are expected next year.

New composition of Congress

Argentines also elected deputies and senators on Sunday, reconfiguring the forces in Congress, although a fragmentation will continue that will force the next president into an exercise of constant negotiation.

The Argentine national Congress is made up of a Lower House of 257 representatives and an Upper House of 72 representatives.

In Deputies, the ruling Union for the Homeland will have 108 seats, compared to 93 for the conservative Together for Change and 37 for the libertarians, who added 34 legislators, an important advance compared to the other two parties that lost strength. To have a quorum, 129 deputies are needed.

Meanwhile, in the Senate, Unión por la Patria will have 34 senators, while Together for Change will have 24 and the libertarians will enter the Upper House for the first time with eight legislators, in a Chamber where 37 senators are needed to have their own majority.

Together for Change lost 25 deputies and nine senators, while Unión por la Patria lost 10 deputies and added two senators.

On Sunday, the governor of the province of Buenos Aires, the main electoral district of the country, was also elected, where the ruling party Axel Kicillof retained the governorship, with 44.8% of the votes.