The still partial results known this Monday of the Polish elections on Sunday confirm a victory without an absolute majority of the government Law and Justice (PiS) and a strong rise of the oppositionwhich could lead to a multiple pact to oust the ultra-conservatives from power.

In the absence of 20% of the votes to be counted, the projections confirm a precarious victory for Law and Justice and award it 196 of the 430 seatsvery far from the 231 that would provide him with the desired majority.

The rest of the formations, the liberal Civic Platform (158 seats); the centrist Third Way coalition (61 deputies) and the progressive Left (30) They could join forces to form a coalition of coalitions (which in total would encompass more than a dozen parties) and thus dethrone PiS, which has held power since 2015.

The collapse of the ultranationalist proposal of Confederacythat with the 15 seats that the forecasts attribute to it is relegated to political irrelevance.

Despite having obtained more votes than any of his rivals, The PiS does not have much maneuverability to establish alliances, since his belligerent attitude throughout the legislature, with confrontations and disqualifications towards practically the entire political spectrum, have ended up isolating him ideologically.

For its part, the Civic Platform (PO), of which Donald Tusk took back the reins a couple of years ago, will try to unite the wills and present a proposal that, in the absence of ideological harmony, works together with the common objective of putting an end to the PiS Government.

The final results, this Tuesday

PO spokesperson, Borys Budkadeclared this Monday to the Polish media that only after knowing the final results, which is scheduled for this Tuesday, will the round of negotiations with its possible allies begin.

Given the foreseeable “hunt for turncoats” that could be unleashed from the Government party, the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, a prominent figure of the PO, said on Polish television that he was “convinced that there will be attempts”, but ruled out that there could be so many defections as to “prevent a new Government”.

The Minister of Education, Przemyslaw Czarnek, warned that “the war is about to begin”, in reference to the maneuvers with which the PiS, of which it is a part, will tempt its rivals to attract them into its orbit. Furthermore, some experts have pointed out the fact that such a heterogeneous coalition could be ineffective and could soon become involved in centrifugal disputes.

It should be noted that during the legislature that is now ending there have been more than a dozen defections and realignments of deputies, to the point that PiS, which four years ago held absolute parliamentary majorityfour years later he had lost it and depended on the unconditional support of smaller groups.

This will be the process after the results

Once the results of the scrutiny are complete and official, a process will begin in which the President of the Republic, Andrzej Dudawhich has favored PiS in almost all its decisions, will have important decisions in its hands that can condition the course of events.

First of all, Duda will have 30 days to convene the new Parliament, a period counted from the day of the elections; Next, a two-week period will open at the end of which the president will appoint the new prime minister, who in turn will have another 14 days to pass a vote of confidence in the Lower House.

If the candidate does not pass that vote and there is no investiture, Parliament will debate for 14 days more to elect a new candidate for Chief Executive, and once he does, the chosen one will have two weeks to submit to a new vote, which must be passed by an absolute majority.

If this does not happen, Duda will dissolve Parliament and call new elections within 45 days, which could lead to the complicated dates of the end of the year. The influx of voters, which has reached a historic 73%, has caused queues of several hours at some voting points to delay the closing of polling stations.

The large Polish diaspora, from which more than half a million votes will come, has also suffered problems due to the lack of ballots and technical failures, and for example in six electoral commissions in Spain the electoral process continues, since the law grants the right to vote all those who were at the doors of the voting point before closing time.