The terrifying possibility of an Israeli ground offensive against Gaza

The ground assault against Loop It is one of the possible scenarios and even one of the most probable of the war in Israel, a terrifying prospect of combat in the heart of an extremely populated city, in underground tunnels and in the middle of hostages.

On Monday, Israel ordered the cut “immediate” of water supply to the Gaza Strip, within the framework of a “total siege” to territory controlled by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

The future seems written. “Israel is going to launch the largest joint operation (air/land/sea/space) against Gaza in history”says John Spencer, an expert at the Modern War Institute at the American military academy West Point, on the social network X (formerly known as Twitter).

“The attacks will have as their first objective the command centers of Hamas and its troops (…) The army will prepare in parallel to enter Gaza,” predicts Alexandre Grinberg, of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).

urban warfare

However, an urban war requires hand-to-hand combat, reduces visibility, multiplies traps, blurs the distinction between civilians and military, and renders armored vehicles practically useless.

Andrew Galer, a former British officer, now an analyst at the intelligence company Janes, describes a “360 degree battlefield where the threat is everywhere”from sewers to roofs and false ceilings.

Securing each building will mean deploying deminers, ladders, ropes and explosives “possibly between shots” and in the dark, he explains.

Besides, “There are risks of fratricidal shooting” given the dispersion and mobility of the combatants.

The “metro” of Gaza

Some 2.3 million Palestinians live in the Gaza Strip, under an Israeli blockade since 2007. Under the labyrinth of narrow and overcrowded streets there is an intense network of tunnels nicknamed “Gaza metro” by the Israeli army.

Hundreds of tunnels were dug under the 14 km border between Gaza and the Egyptian Sinai for the movement of fighters, weapons and other contraband goods.

Many were destroyed, but since 2014 Hamas has dug underground roads in its own territory.

The combatants thus move 30 or 40 meters deep, out of the range of attacks, hiding rocket launcher systems that they bring to the surface thanks to trapdoors.

The Israeli army bombed them heavily in 2021, and while it undoubtedly knows part of this network, other tunnels remain secret and will complicate its operations.

Defensive advantage

Hamas “knows its tunnels by heart”says Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center in New York. “Some probably have traps. Preparing to fight in that terrain (…) will require a lot of information (…), something that the Israelis may not have.”

Especially knowing that in open combat, the defender – in this case Hamas – has a great tactical advantage.

“Everyone knows it will be long and difficult, with many losses”admits Alexandre Grinberg.

For Hamas, the tunnels are “an advantage that can become a trap. When they are located, those inside can be locked up. In that case the instruction will be ‘merciless,'” Grinberg added.

Weight of hostages

The operation will be even more complicated since Hamas took dozens of civilians hostage.

“Israeli society will not forgive the fact that the lives of the hostages are not a priority”and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “he knows it perfectly”considers Sylvaine Bulle, Israel specialist at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), based in France.

The accounts that Israeli society will demand will generate “without a doubt temporal conflicts between the military and the political,” he anticipates.

In fact, Israel is not currently in a position to negotiate, says Kobi Michael, a researcher at the INSS think tank in Tel Aviv.

“The hostage problem cannot be Israel’s top priority.”who can take care of it “when Hamas is defeated and weak”he states bluntly.

A member of the Hamas political leadership in Qatar confirmed it this Monday: “There is currently no possibility of negotiation on the issue of prisoners or anything else.”