The increase in rice prices anticipates food risks associated with the climate

He price of riceat its highest level in 15 years after the restrictions imposed by India at exportsanticipates the way in which the climate change will disrupt the global food supply, experts warn.

The rice prices rose 9.8% in August, canceling out the declines in other basic products, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The process began with the announcement in July by Indiawhich represents 40% of world exports of riceof the prohibition of sales of rice that is not basmati abroad.

India justified this measure by the sharp rise in prices of rice in its internal market caused by geopolitics, the El Niño climate phenomenon and the “extreme weather conditions”.

This year should be the hottest ever experienced by humanity and the impact of The boy could even aggravate the situation.

Despite heavy flooding in some northern areas, this August was the hottest and driest ever recorded in India. The rainy season, which provides up to 80% of the country’s annual rainfall, was well below normal.

The restrictions decided by India come after an embargo, last September, on exports of another variety of riceessential food in certain regions of Africa.

Up to 8% of world exports of rice by 2023/24 they could now be withdrawn from the market, according to an analysis by BMI, which belongs to the Fitch rating agency.

Drought fears

For now, the crisis gave an opportunity to Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third largest exporters in the world, to increase their shipments.

The drought brought on by El Niño could threaten crops, says Elyssa Kaur Ludher of the Southeast Asia climate change program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“The end of this year and especially the beginning of the next will be very, very difficult”, he warns.

The boya natural weather phenomenon, generally lasts nine to 12 months, and should strengthen at the end of this year.

Before the restrictions imposed by India, their effect was to raise export prices of riceaccording to BMI.

In Thailand, rainfall is currently 18% below forecasts for the period, the National Water Resources Office said in September. Late rains could still compensate for the deficit, but the agency showed “concerned” due to the drought caused by The boy.

“New norm”

The impact is more on prices than supply, says Charles Hart, agricultural commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions. “We are not in a period of shortage of rice”.

This situation may lead to reducing the reserves increased after the covid pandemic and prompt importers to obtain new agreements and impose limits at the local level.

The Philippines, a large importer, has just signed an agreement with Vietnam to stabilize supply, a few days after announcing price limits.

Indonesia has increased imports from neighboring countries since the beginning of the year to stabilize the price of rice for its population.

“We want to reinforce our strategic reserves of ricebut now imports are complicated, which did not happen before”underlined the Indonesian president, Joko Widodo.

But for the poorest, high prices mean less food. “It is also a matter of social stabilitya political issue” to which leaders must be attentive, emphasizes Elyssa Kaur Ludher.

Climate change can lower productivity, with a drop in agricultural yields as temperatures rise, but it also increases the probability of extreme events such as the 2022 floods in Pakistan.

“Irregular weather conditions are the new norm”, underlines Avantika Goswami, climate change researcher at the Center for Science and Environment.

With information from AFP