COVID-19: The omicron variant vs. delta: a crucial battle

According to the omicron variant of the coronavirus spreading across southern Africa and appearing in other countries, scientists eagerly watch a battle unfold that could determine the future of the pandemic. Will the world’s most recent competitor to the delta be able to unseat it?

After analyzing the data from South Africa and Great Britain, some scientists suggest that omicron could be the winner.

“It is still very early, but more and more information is beginning to arrive little by little that suggests that omicron will probably displace delta in many places, if not all,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who oversees the variants for a research collaboration spearheaded by Harvard Medical School.

But others pointed out Monday that it is too early to know how likely it is that omicron will spread more effectively than delta or, if it does, how quickly it could prevail.

“Especially here in the United States, where we’re seeing significant increases in the delta, if omicron is going to replace it I think we’ll know in about two weeks,” said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.

Many crucial questions remain to be answered about omicron, including whether the virus causes milder or more severe illness and to what extent it could evade the immunity of people vaccinated against COVID-19 or who have already had the disease.

As for the spread, the scientists highlight what is happening in South Africa, where this variant was first detected.

The speed with which omicron has infected people and almost reached dominance in South Africa has made health experts worry that the country is at the beginning of a new wave that could overwhelm hospitals .

The new variant quickly moved South Africa from a period of low transmission, averaging fewer than 200 new cases a day in mid-November, to more than 16,000 a day on the weekend.

According to specialists, omicron represents more than 90% of new cases in Gauteng province, the epicenter of the new wave. The variant is spreading rapidly and becoming dominant in eight other South African provinces.

“The virus is spreading with extraordinary rapidity,” said Willem Hanekom, director of the African Health Research Institute.

“If you look at the slopes of this wave that we are on right now, it is a much steeper slope than the first three waves that South Africa experienced. This indicates that it is spreading rapidly and therefore could be a highly contagious virus, “he added.

However, Hanekom, who is also co-chair of the South African COVID-19 Variants Research Consortium, said the country had such a low number of delta cases when omicron emerged that “I don’t think we can say” it has surpassed the delta.