Purchase of weapons for Ukraine. Hungary throws obstacles under its feet and threatens to veto accession negotiations

Since 2022, EU countries have agreed to allocate EUR 3.6 billion for partial refinancing of supplies to Ukraine (Poland will be the largest beneficiary of the refunds agreed so far), but Budapest has been blocking the release of the next, eighth tranche worth half a billion euros for several weeks. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó, during the Thursday (August 31, 2023) meeting of EU diplomacy chiefs in Toledo, reiterated that the condition for Budapest’s consent is the removal of the Hungarian OTP bank from the “list of “sponsors of the war” (also known as the “list of shame”), on which the Ukrainians This list also includes companies from other Western countries (including Leroy Merlin, Procter&Gamble or Reiffeisen Bank International), but none of their home countries mention this in their negotiations on aid.

– I regret that the eighth tranche is still blocked. I hope that we will be able to unlock it in the coming weeks, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Thursday. The money for subsidizing the armaments aid for Ukraine, as well as an additional two billion euros for the supply and start-up of artillery production for Kiev, comes from the European Peace Fund. This is the EU’s common coffers (apart from the regular EU budget), which requires unanimity to spend, but Hungarians previously resorted to the “constructive absenteeism” trick – they did not raise their hand “for”, but did not participate in voting, did not use the right of veto.

Minister Szijjártó, also in Toledo, repeated warnings that they would not agree to start accession negotiations with Ukraine (President Volodymyr Zelensky wants this consent already in December this year) if Kiev does not respond to demands regarding the linguistic rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. The issue of minority rights is also raised by Brussels as one of the conditions for accession talks. Moreover, the reform regarding national minorities, which is difficult for Ukrainians not so much because of the Hungarian language as because of the disputes over the Russian language in state institutions, is also postulated by the Venice Commission.

Orban to buy?

The Hungarians also raise the same reservations in the context of talks on medium-term financial assistance for Kiev (EUR 50 billion in 2024-27) and the postulated by Borrell – here the group of skeptical EU countries is slightly larger – a quick guarantee of up to EUR 20 billion from the European Peace Funds for arming Ukrainians in 2024-27. Despite this, there is still a conviction in Brussels that Hungarian resistance to aid for Ukraine can be overcome.

– Prime Minister Orban has shown many times that he also has a very transactional approach to Ukraine. “Something for something.” The question is, in what other field can this “something” be obtained from Brussels – a high EU diplomat explained to us recently. Currently, Hungarians have blocked access to a large part of EU funds (from KPO and cohesion policy), so they are in permanent negotiations with the European Commission.

Borrell proposed to the ministers in Toledo (Poland was represented by Deputy Minister Wojciech Gerwel) that the EU military mission should train 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of this year (the current target is 30,000), which, according to Borrell, would meet with general support. Commanded mainly from Poland (and partly from Germany), this mission has an annual budget of around €100 million and has already trained 25,000 Ukrainians. It is possible that training of F-16 fighter pilots will be included in it.

When extension

One of the topics of the meeting of ministers in Toledo was the pace of EU enlargement. Charles Michel, the head of the European Council, earlier this week announced that both the EU and candidate countries should be ready for enlargement in 2030. “One thing is certain: if we don’t set ourselves a goal, we’ll never be ready,” Michel defended his extremely ambitious goal today in an interview with a group of journalists in Brussels. Such a schedule for the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova will be discussed at the October EU summit. – The European Commission has always been ready for any proposal that would lead us to enlargement in 2030 – convinced the EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi in Toledo.

G7 aid plan

The EU’s plans for financial and armaments assistance for Ukraine, planned for several years, would be part of security commitments initiated by the G7 group on the occasion of the NATO summit in Vilnius, sometimes called “security guarantees” for Ukraine. – We need to support Ukraine in a predictable and systematic way, that is, not only in the next month or week, but in the long term. By showing the aggressor that we stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes. During and after the war, explained Borrell.

So far, more than a dozen non-G7 countries have formally joined this group’s declaration of long-term assistance to Kiev – including the Netherlands, Sweden, the Baltic states, but not Poland (in Vilnius it argued that assistance should be based on NATO, not the G7), although it indirectly supports this declaration due to membership in the EU. The talks concern binding and long guarantees, e.g. arms supplies to make it more difficult for future governments in the West to easily and suddenly withdraw from aid to Ukraine, and thus discourage the Kremlin from its policy of waiting out current governments in Europe and the US. The background is also the fear of Europeans that if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, he will seek to significantly reduce aid for Kiev.