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Experts evaluate possible replacements for Gerardo Esquivel in Banxico

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López Obrador said Monday that Deputy Governor Gerardo Esquivel, whose term ends on December 31, may not be reappointed to the post following his loss in an election to head a Washington-based development bank.

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The comment sparked speculation among Banxico watchers about possible names to fill his place on the five-member Governing Board, with experts believing the job is more likely to go to an outsider rather than someone who already works. in the bank.

From what we have seen with the nominations throughout this Administration, what would already be a tradition has not been fulfilled, that the Governing Board had members, was made up, of people who made a career within the central bank“, said Janneth Quiroz Zamoravice president of economic studies at Monex Casa de Bolsa.

This includes the appointment last year of the former head of expenses of the Ministry of Finance victoria rodriguez as governor of the bank, despite her limited experience in monetary policy.

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Although the chances are slim, dodge he could end up surprising Banxico watchers by being re-elected for a second eight-year term, which would likely see him continue to support looser monetary policy than other board members.

Here are some of the candidates economists believe could replace Esquivel:

Gabriel Yorio

As second in command of the Ministry of Finance, headed by Rogelio Ramirez de la O., I laugh he’s been part of the team that has kept the deficit in check amid big spending like a new airport and refinery.

In his capacity as undersecretary, he attends meetings of the central bank’s board without the right to vote and is the government’s public voice on issues ranging from oil coverage to a pact to limit inflation.

Previously, he worked at the Mexico City Ministry of Finance, at the Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior SNC, and at the World Bank.

Yorio has relevant experience in macroeconomics, markets and policies. The markets will likely welcome his appointment”, said Alonso Cervera, chief economist for Latin America at Credit Suisse Group AG.

Lucia Buenrostro

Vice President of Regulatory Policy of the National Banking and Securities Commission, or CNBV, Buenrostro has a PhD in Economics from the University of Warwick, in the United Kingdom. She worked in the private sector at Commerzbank AG, and held senior positions at López Obrador’s Banco del Bienestar and the country’s health regulator. Her sister, Raquel, is a close ally of López Obrador and was recently appointed economy secretary.

I do not remember with this point that I have close experience in a field related to Banco de México. I don’t see it that way. Again, it would not be a restriction by law.”, said Joel Virgen Rojano, director of strategy for Latin America at TD Securities.

John Paul de Botton

Undersecretary of Expenditures of the Ministry of Finance, De Botton occupies the same position that Rodríguez had before being elected to the highest position at Banxico. He previously served as director of two development banks and worked in the Tax Administration Service. He was also part of López Obrador’s transition team.

Some point out that he has less experience than Yorio and is less well known in the financial markets, but his work at the finance ministry makes him a competitive player for the job. Others think the president is unlikely to let him leave his current position.

However, it seems difficult for the Government to want to let the undersecretaries go, because they work very well in the government team“, said Gabriel Casillashead of economics for Latin America at Barclays Plcreferring to de botton and the Undersecretary of the Treasury, Gabriel Yorio.

jorge mendoza

Director of the Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, Banobras, trained at Harvard, Mendoza is one of the few high-level public officials to work with López Obrador after previously serving in the Administration of former President Enrique Peña Nieto.

Before being posted to Banobras when López Obrador took office in 2018, Mendoza was director of corporate finance at Mexico’s public utility company and held senior positions in public credit and international affairs at the finance ministry.

Mendoza worked in mergers and acquisitions for Barclays Capital in New York and in investment banking for Credit Suisse Group AG before joining the public sector. He has an MBA from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Finance from the University of Texas, Austin.

Julio Santaella

The former president of Mexico’s statistics institute is no stranger to the central bank as he was part of its economic research team.

He has also worked on macroeconomic policy at the Ministry of Finance, as well as at the International Monetary Fund. He has a Ph.D. from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Santaella and Édgar Amador, both technical advisors to the governor of Banxico, “have extensive experience in monetary and fiscal policy”, Gabriel Lozano, chief Mexico economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note this month.

Source: Gestion

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