Could Argentine far-right libertarian Javier Milei win the presidency?

The Argentine far-right libertarian javier milei shocked the country on Sunday when he won the most votes in open primary elections. Now the big question is whether he can repeat the result in the October presidential elections.

The primary, which allows candidates from each political space to be chosen, is a good indicator of how the general elections could turn out. Milei got the 30% of the vote just ahead of the main conservative bloc, with a 28%and the ruling center-left Peronism, with the 27%

The economist, whose boisterous campaign rallies and promises to purge the political elite have echoed former US leader Donald Trump, could upend Argentina’s political status-quo. In the campaign he promised to close the central bank, dollarize the economy and slash state spending.

However, Milei faces a bigger challenge to win the Oct. 22 general election or likely a November runoff, as blank votes and a record low turnout on Sunday hit the traditional parties the hardest.

That trend could change in the next two months.

The Minister of Economy and presidential candidate of the ruling party, Sergio Massa, said that the primary vote was only the “first time” of the electoral competition, using a soccer analogy in the country of Lionel Messi and Diego Maradona.

“We have the second half and the extra time and the penalties, and we will be fighting until the last minute,” Massa said after the election, which gave his coalition, the country’s top political force for decades, the worst result in its history in primary elections.

Analysts say there could be more people turning out to vote in October, after registering a turnout level of 69.5% of the register Between primaries and general elections there is an average increase of 4 percentage points in the number of voters, JP Morgan said in a report.

This suggests “a greater advantage for the traditional parties in the general elections compared to Milei, who we see closer to her ceiling in terms of voting intention.”

“Milee President”

That defiance hasn’t deterred Milei’s supporters in his campaign bunker, happy to have far exceeded poll estimates that put him at around twenty% of the votes

“Feel it, feel it, Milei Presidente!”their fans chanted as the preliminary results of the primaries were released.

The conservative Together for Change coalition has vowed to rally behind its elected candidate, Patricia Bullrich, a hardline former security minister, though she admitted the result showed people were looking for something new.

“This is a society that demands a profound change, from the roots”said Bullrich, who promises security, reasonable taxes and an end to years of uncertainty and government red tape.

Julio Cobos, former vice president of the country and current representative of Juntos por el Cambio, agreed that the voters expressed that they want a profound change, but maintained that the race is still open.

“The challenge is the final election, which is October”he told Reuters, noting that the coalition, if it holds together, still has room to grow.

“It is important that the leaders show up together, that we unify proposals, speeches, that they see a good team”he added.

Beyond all doubt is the fact that the presidential race, once seen as a dispute between the two main political groups and with Milei a notable third place, is now a true three-party fight. Each of the leading candidates could make it to the runoff.

“The election ends up being by thirds, something that was not before”said Alejandro Corbacho, director of Political Science at the UCEMA University.

“It is clear that there is a lot of anger, there is a lot of anger. People are very angry with the political class”he added.

Jared Lou of William Blair Investment said Milei became the “favorite” But a lot of uncertainty remains and he said that the possibility of an eventual second round between Bullrich and Milei increased.

“One factor that can help Milei in the presidential election is that he is an outsider and the voters are frustrated,” held. “However, many of the policies that he has campaigned for are seen as quite radical by the electorate.”

Source: Reuters