World economy will prosper with global warming below 1.5 ° C

The global economy will grow 2% by the end of the century if the world can keep global warming below 1.5 ° C, according to a new study.

Most models project a period in which the world would exceed that mark for several years or decades, then cool down again to the level of 1.5 ° C by 2100. This would require removing existing carbon in the atmosphere on a scale unviably large, according to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Based on the nine-team model, Keywan Riahi, research leader and director of the energy program of the Austrian research institute IIASA, revealed that it could be impossible and that if the temperature temporarily rises above the key level, extreme weather events, such as floods and wildfires, will increase.

To avoid permanent damage to ecosystems, the world must avoid exceeding the mark, the report warned. By doing so, there will be less need to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, a process known as net negative emissions.

If a “rapid reduction of emissions in the coming decades, there will be no need to reach the net negative”Said co-author Christoph Bertram, climate impact researcher of the Potsdam Institute in Germany. “Instead, global temperatures would stabilize at a certain level around the time we reach net zero of emissions.”.

In addition to protecting the planet, achieving net zero – which aims to completely nullify the amount of greenhouse gases generated by human activity – would have long-term economic benefits. “The initial investment to achieve rapid transformations towards a global net zero system will pay off in the long termRiahi said.

In fact, the world GDP could grow even more than 2%, according to another co-author, Laurent Drouet, Senior Scientist in the Climate Research Group CMCC in Italy. Drouet said the calculation used in the study does not include the economic damage from climate change, which would be more serious above 1.5 degrees.

The study warned that to stay below that threshold, countries must improve their emissions targets under the Paris Agreement. Current commitments imply a slow start to mitigation and must be dramatically escalated, according to the report.

The transport sector is key to success, according to the study. A recent report from the global climate leadership group C40 Cities notes that global public transport use must double by 2030 if the targets are to be met.

Daniel Huppmann, co-author and researcher of IIASA, called for a radical change in transportation to support decarbonization. “A mobility revolution will be crucial to reduce dependence on net negative emissions technologies and mitigate their risks and negative impact on the population.”, He indicated.