Many speculations and few certainties regarding omicron variant

The variant omicron opens a new page in the coronavirus crisis? It’s too early to tell, scientists say, after days of speculation about the real risks of this virus mutation. COVID-19 that worries the world.

“I hope we can address omicron with empiricism, prudence and humility instead of with speculations like those of the last days ”, asked on Twitter the Canadian infectologist Isaac Bogoch.

What is known for sure by now? This variant has an impressive number of mutations that are concentrated in one part, the “spike” protein, which is the key to entry of the virus into the body.

These characteristics explain the fear, for now theoretical, that this variant is more contagious and more resistant to vaccines than the previous ones.

It represents a “very high risk” for the world, in the words of the World Health Organization (WHO). Several countries, such as Israel and Japan, have already closed their borders for now.

But the WHO It also highlights all that we still do not know about the virulence and transmissibility of omicron, after a shower of contradictory information.

On Sunday, a South African doctor explained that patients affected by this variant had “mild symptoms”, leading some analysts to assume that this variant was more contagious but less dangerous.

“It really is too early to say,” lamented French infectologist Yazdan Yazdanpanah on Monday.

“Regarding gravity, we have very few elements for now,” he insisted, stressing that it was impossible to draw conclusions from isolated testimony.

Other data, however, do cause concern. For example, the increase in the number of cases in South Africa, which could reach 10,000 new infections per day by the end of this week, according to South African epidemiologist Salim Abdool Karim.

Does this indicate that omicron is especially contagious? In this regard it is also premature to venture, according to experts, who indicate that there are other local elements that may have influenced these figures.

The strategy that does not change

For example, vaccination in South Africa progresses slowly and less than a quarter of the population is vaccinated, making the inhabitants more vulnerable.

But it is important to note that the delta variant, very widespread in Europe, is little present in this region, which multiplies the questions about the virulence of omicron in southern Africa.

“The circumstances of the emergence and circulation of the omicron variant in South Africa are not the same as in Europe,” said French epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet.

Regarding the resistance of the vaccines, it will be necessary to wait two or three weeks to have the first elements on the capacity of the human organism to generate antibodies against this variant. And it will take months to have an idea of ​​the real effectiveness of vaccines against cases of coronavirus caused by the omicron variant.

For now, the researchers insist on one point: the strategy to combat current variants, especially delta, remains in principle the good one, even after the appearance of omicron.

In other words, it is necessary to continue vaccinating as many people as possible, especially adults, and respecting certain restrictions, such as social distance and the use of a mask.

On Monday, the French Pasteur institute published new forecasts that do not yet take omicron into account, but that estimate that respecting these basic rules can considerably reduce the wave of hospitalizations at the peak of this wave, expected in early 2022.

“You don’t have to make a great effort but be more attentive and for example telework a little more. It can make a difference, ”said Simon Cauchemez, one of the authors of these forecasts.