In 2050 there will be 1.3 billion diabetics, what is accelerating it?

Cases of diabetes in the world they could reach 1.3 billion in 2050, more than double that in 2021, if effective strategies are not foreseen, according to new studies, which warn that structural racism and geographic inequality are accelerating this global crisis.

In addition, standardized diabetes rates are projected to rise in all countries over the next three decades, according to a series of studies from The Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology.

The increase in cases of this disease is due to the rise in type 2 diabetes, which will be caused by an increase in the prevalence of obesity and by demographic changes.

In 2021 there were 529 million people living with diabetes and type 2 represented 90% of the entire prevalence of this disease, which is also estimated to be responsible for the possible increase in cases, up to 1.3 billion, in 2050.

Besides, “Structural racism suffered by minority ethnic groups and geographic inequality experienced by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are accelerating rising rates of diabetes, disease, and death around the world,” notes The Lancet.

Diabetes rates among ethnic minority groups in high-income countries, for example in USAare 1.5 times higher than their white counterparts.

Likewise, mortality rates from this disease in low- and middle-income countries double those of high-income countries, indicates the series of studies, in which the Spanish Institute of Health Carlos III has participated, among others.

“Structural racism and geographic inequality amplify and aggravate the social determinants of health and affect the care and treatment that people with diabetes have access to”highlights the magazine in an editorial.

“This translates into a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes and worse clinical outcomes in populations suffering from racism current and historical oppression.

The pandemic of COVID-19 it has also amplified inequality in diabetes with those with diabetes being 50% more likely to develop a severe infection and twice as likely to die, especially if they belong to minority ethnic groups.

Estimates indicate that more than three-quarters of adults with diabetes will be living in LMICs by 2045, of whom less than 1 in 10 will receive guideline-based comprehensive care.

The most recent and comprehensive estimates show that the current global prevalence rate is 6.1%, making diabetes one of the top 10 causes of death and disability.

By region, the highest rate is 9.3% in North Africa and the Middle East, and is expected to rise to 16.8% in 2050; in Latin America and the Caribbean is estimated to grow up to 11.3%.

Diabetes was especially evident in people aged 65 and over in all countries, recording a prevalence rate of more than 20% for that demographic worldwide.

“The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming, but also a challenge for all healthcare systems in the world, especially considering that this disease also increases the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke”says Liane Ong, one of the signatories from the University of Washington.

The public may believe that the diabetes Type 2 is simply associated with obesity, lack of exercise or an inadequate diet, but other factors such as genetics, logistical, social and financial barriers within the structural system of a country play a role, especially in those with low and medium income.

These inequalities affect access to screening and treatment and the availability of health services, says Lauryn Stafford of the same university.

Another study focuses on potential interventions and highlights the importance of equitable partnerships, building community capacity and trust, ecosystem change, and improving the clinical practice environment.

These initiatives remain limited and often difficult to find funding for, so “a much larger and more ambitious program is needed to address centuries of injustices that have followed the well-trodden paths of power and colonization,” the editorial adds. .